Upgraded severe risk Tuesday; 80s stick around this week

Here we go.

Severe weather season in Minnesota peaks between Memorial Day and the Fourth of July. The next few weeks are the statistical peak for severe weather.

Take a look at severe weather reports from the Twin Cities National Weather Service office. June is the most active severe weather month historically.

So it's no surprise that our next severe weather threat arrives Tuesday.

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Slight risk

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) houses the best severe weather forecasters on the planet. Every day they asses numerous atmospheric parameters and evaluate risk zones for severe storms.

They're really good at it, but assessing severe storm timing and coverage is a meteorological high-wire act. It's extremely challenging.

SPC photo 2014
NOAA Storm Prediction Center in 2014. Image via NOAA

NOAA SPC has upgraded the risk over Minnesota to slight for Tuesday. Statistically, there about a 15 percent chance that a severe storm with 58-plus mph winds and or 1-inch diameter hail will pass within 25 miles of your location Tuesday.

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I'd put the chances for roving storm clusters and squall lines tomorrow afternoon and evening are over 80 percent. Every storm won't be severe, but they'll be around. Keep an eye and ear out for watches and warnings late tomorrow.

Timing is everything

Storm timing differs on various models Tuesday afternoon and evening. NOAA's NAM 3 km resolution model develops storm clusters near Bemidji, Minn., early Tuesday afternoon, then drives a squall line that could evolve into a bow echo south toward the Twin Cities around 6 to 7 p.m.

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NOAA NAM 3 km model from 1 pm to 9 pm CDT Tuesday via tropical tidbits.

Keep the weather radio and MPR News handy late Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Steamy air mass

The storms will be feeding off a tropical air mass Tuesday. Dew points push the sweaty 70-degree mark across much of Minnesota by Tuesday evening.

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NOAA GFS model dew point forecast for 7 pm CDT Tuesday via tropical tidbits.

McSteamy: 80s stick around

This week has the look and feel of summer. Highs in the 80s hang around most of Minnesota this week.

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NOAA via Weather Bell.

Cooler by the lake

Watch out North Shore ... as temperature and humidity climb the overheated hordes are coming north from the Cities in the next few weeks. Myself included.

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NOAA via Weather Bell.

Stay situationally aware for severe weather Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Lakes and rivers overflowing

Many lakes and rivers are past bank-full thanks to our wet spring. Lake Minnetonka is still overflowing across the spillway at Gray's Bay Dam.

No-wake restrictions are in effect again this year within 600 feet of shore on Lake Minnetonka.

Climate change connection 

Climate models from the University of Minnesota predicted wetter springs as our climate warms and more water vapor is added to the atmosphere.

As a meteorologist who watches and studies climate and weather patterns, it's clear there are climate change links between what seem like separate events.

Minnesota's increasingly smoky skies coincide with the increase in western wildfires. Wetter springs and overflowing lakes in early summer were also modeled. Both events are almost certainly symptoms of climate change.