Shower and t-storm chances increase late Saturday; Thursday tornado recap

This is our first Saturday of astronomical summer.  Sunsets are late this time of year and there are a lot of outdoor activities. Thankfully, the thunderstorm chances hold off until later today across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

On to the details.

Shower and thunderstorm chances

Northwestern and west-central Minnesota will have the best chance of showers and some embedded thunderstorms this Saturday morning and afternoon.  By late afternoon, additional showers and thunderstorms could develop in southern Minnesota and spread to the northeast this evening.  Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see periods of showers and thunderstorms overnight and on into Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows this potential rain pattern Saturday morning through early Sunday afternoon:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain. It will rain in some areas that look dry in the HRRR loop, but the loop shows the general rain pattern within the model. Additional waves of showers and thunderstorms are expected in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin beyond the end point of the loop....into Sunday evening.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can see the recent local NWS radar loop here.   The recent radar loop for southwestern Minnesota can be found here, and the southeastern Minnesota loop here.  The northeastern Minnesota radar loop and the northwestern Minnesota radar loop are also available.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather for much of the southern half of Minnesota plus southwestern Wisconsin this Saturday and through the overnight hours of Saturday night.  Several counties in far southern Minnesota are in the SPC slight severe weather risk category for that same period.

Here are details of our severe weather chances, via the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service:

Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible, while slight risk means that scattered severe t-storms are possible:

The Storm Prediction Center will update the severe weather outlook later this morning and several times this afternoon and evening.

Temperature trends

Saturday afternoon highs are expected to be mainly in the 70s across Minnesota and western Wisconsin. There will be some highs in the 60s near Lake Superior and in the areas of northwestern Minnesota that see the thickest cloud cover.   Our average high temp is 81 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

Sunday highs will also be mainly in the 70s, with 60s to the northeast:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 70s Monday, followed by mid 80s Tuesday and upper 80s Wednesday through Friday.

Three tornadoes last Thursday

Many of you have probably seen this image of the tornado that moved through parts of Redwood county on Thursday:

The Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service has posted their survey of Thursday's storm damage in southern Minnesota:

Preliminary results from damage surveys identified three tornadoes. An EF-1 tornado occurred in Redwood county between Redwood Falls and Wabasso. An EF-0 tornado occurred in Brown County two miles south of Leavenworth. An EF-0 tornado occurred in far northern Watonwan County about a half mile southeast of Godahl. There were also several reports of wind damage and large hail.

EF-0 and EF-1 are weak tornadoes on the tornado severity scale.

Thankfully, there were no reports of fatalities or injuries from the tornadoes.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.