Mixed bag weekend; why meteorologists ‘show their stripes’ on summer solstice

Wind. Clouds. Sun. Rain.

We can expect a little bit of everything this weekend. Diffuse and loosely organized low-pressure cells bring a mixed bag of weather this weekend. Rainfall looks a little more spotty than it did Thursday.

We may escape with a mostly dry Friday night and Saturday. Rain and thunder coverage increases late Saturday through Monday.

And there are still signs that true summer heat and humidity arrive next week.

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Finally.

summer solstice Parley Lake
Summer solstice on Parley Lake near Victoria in 2015. Image: Paul Huttner/MPR News.

Complex cloud montage 

Friday's GOES-16 visible satellite loop shows a complex cloud pattern across Minnesota. A mix of high and low-level clouds moving in different directions.

Low-level winds blowing from the southeast push the low clouds toward the northwest. Higher cirrus patches jet northeast on upper-wind flow. Thunderstorm clusters erupt in the Dakotas. Weather chaos.

Expect similar cloud pattern this weekend with sunny breaks followed by cloudy periods as this unorganized low-pressure system spins nearby.

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NOAA GOES-16 visible satellite loop Friday.

Chaotic rainfall patterns

It's hard for forecast models to precisely capture the chaotic rainfall pattern this weekend. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System seems to have the trend right.

Lesser coverage Friday night and Saturday, with more widespread rains later Saturday into Sunday and Monday. We'll see.

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NOAA GFS model Friday night through Monday via tropical tidbits.

Around an inch

Most models cluster around an inch for rainfall through Monday. Local totals to 2 inches-plus still appear possible. Multi-inch rainfall totals in Iowa will likely exacerbate flood woes.

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NOAA GFS FV-3 model rainfall output through 7 pm CDT Monday via pivotal weather.

Summer next week

The upper-air pattern and forecast output still blows significantly warmer and more humid air north into Minnesota starting next week. The big western heat dome shows signs of nudging north.

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NOAA forecast upper air map for 7 pm CDT July 3.

Highs in the upper 80s, to near 90 are likely across much of Minnesota by late next week. Cooler by the big lake, of course.

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NOAA forecast temps for Minneapolis via Weather Bell.

Showing our stripes 

Meteorologists across the globe are showing our stripes Friday.

The yearly blue to red colored stripes graphics illustrate how much the globe has warmed during the industrial revolution. Click on the links below in my tweet and you can see that data down to the state and even county level.