Frost advisory up north; warmer air returns

It’s another reminder that we live in Minnesota. A frost advisory is posted for Thursday morning up north.

Image: Duluth NWS.

Including the cities of Ely, Isabella, Hibbing, Grand Rapids,
Hill City, Aitkin, Duluth, Pine City, Hinckley, and Superior
306 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

…FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY…

The National Weather Service in Duluth has issued a Frost
Advisory, which is in effect from 3 AM to 7 AM CDT Thursday.

* WHERE…Portions of northwest Wisconsin and east central,
north central and northeast Minnesota. This includes the
Tribal Lands of the Mille Lacs Band Big Sandy Lake, Lena Lake,
East Lake and Hinckley areas.

* TEMPERATURES…As low as 35.

* IMPACTS…Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation.

* TIMING…Late tonight into early Thursday morning.

Frost in northeast Minnesota is typical in June. The only real frost-free month in northeast Minnesota is typically July. Frost often returns in late August.

Milder days ahead

Milder breezes blow again as we head toward the weekend. Highs return to the upper 70s to near 80 degrees over the next week. The average high for the Twin Cities Friday is 79 degrees.

NOAA forecast temperatures for Minneapolis via Weather Bell.

Rain chances Friday and Saturday

Forecast models are still in flux with the timing of showers and T-Storms Friday and Saturday.

The latest trends suggest a slightly drier forecast, with a couple rounds of showers and T-Storms late Friday and again Saturday. Honestly, there’s a lot of models spread Friday through Sunday. NOAA’s GFS model seems confused to me. I’m leaning more toward the Canadian model which suggests scattered, occasional rain Friday and Saturday, with a drying trend more likely for Father’s Day. But forecast confidence is low.

Here’s the Canadian model from Friday through Sunday.

Canadian GEM model Friday through Sunday via tropical tidbits.

The Canadian model suggests rainfall totals of an inch across northern Minnesota, with lower amounts as you move south.

Canadian GEM model rainfall output through Sunday via pivotal weather.

Midwest: Ground zero for heavier rainfall

The data clearly shows Minnesota is getting wetter as our climate shifts. But this map really jumps out. An analysis of precipitation trends over the past century shows that Minnesota and the Upper Midwest are ground zero for changes toward a wetter climate.