A summery Saturday, western Minnesota has best t-storm chance; cooler on Sunday

A summery milestone was reached Friday at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport:

The sunshine and warmth was quite a contrast to that rainy day about three weeks ago (May 19) when the Twin Cities high temp was only 46 degrees!

Temperature trends 

Saturday afternoon highs will reach the mid to upper 80 across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A few spots, even in the Twin Cities metro area, could touch 90. It'll be cooler near Lake Superior, with some highs in the 70s. Our average high temp is 77 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

Sunday highs will only reach the 60s in about the northwestern half of Minnesota, with 70s elsewhere:

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Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 70s Monday and Tuesday, followed by around 70 Wednesday, mid 70s Thursday and around 80 on Friday.

Rain and thunder chances

Northwestern Minnesota has the best chance of thunderstorms this Saturday afternoon and evening, but those thunderstorms are expected to also expand into west-central and southwestern Minnesota and north-central Minnesota Saturday evening into Saturday night. Eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin could see scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm on Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows the potential rain pattern Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon:

It'll rain in some areas that look dry in the simulated radar loop, but the loop illustrates the general rain pattern.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather Saturday and Saturday night in much of northwestern Minnesota, with a marginal risk across the remainder of the west, plus north-central Minnesota:

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

The Saturday and Saturday night severe weather outlook will be updated several times throughout today by the SPC.

You can get updates on the weather from the NWS Grand Forks, ND office.

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2:30 p.m. update:

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As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

River level update

River levels continue to fall at many locations around Minnesota. You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

The Mississippi River at St. Paul is now below flood stage; here’s the Saturday morning hydrograph for that location:

The lower portions of a few trees on the eastern side of Raspberry Island were still underwater Saturday morning:

There are flood warnings along some sections of rivers in Minnesota. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any green-shaded location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website.

Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the National Weather Service point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you.

If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river in central or southern Minnesota, check here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.