A summery Friday, with a thunder chance; Scattered Saturday t-storms

Our Thursday was gorgeous. If you like it a bit warmer and more humid, you’ll like our Friday weather, although some of us could see some Friday showers and thunderstorms.

On to the details.

Temperature trends

Highs Friday afternoon will reach the 80s across much of central and southern Minnesota, with 70s in most of northern  Minnesota and western Wisconsin. There will be some 60s near Lake Superior. Many spots in the Twin Cities metro area are expected to peak in the lower 80s. Our average high temp is 79 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

Saturday will feature a lot of highs in the 70s, with 60s to the north:

Northern and central Minnesota are expected to top out in the 60s on Father’s Day (Sunday), with 70s south:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the lower 70s Monday, followed by mid 70s Tuesday through Thursday.

Rain and thunder chances

Parts of northern and central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin are seeing areas of rain this Friday morning, with a thunderstorm also possible. The far northern part of the Twin Cities metro area also had some mid-morning rain, with a thunder chance. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is also possible in the remainder of the metro area today.

Forecast models show another batch  of showers and thunderstorm developing by mid to late afternoon across parts of northern and central Minnesota into western Wisconsin.  That area sags southward, and the Twin Cities metro plus southern Minnesota could see scattered showers and thunderstorms this Friday evening.

Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have a good chance of occasional showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night, with a small chance of showers Sunday morning.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Friday afternoon through Sunday morning:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Friday afternoon through Sunday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain. It will rain in some areas that look dry in the NAM loop, but the loop shows the general pattern of intermittent waves of showers and thunderstorms.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Severe weather outlook

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service has parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin in their marginal risk for severe weather this Friday and Friday night:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

The Twin Cities metro area is included in the SPC marginal risk area, indicating that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

SPC will update the severe weather outlook a couple of times as we go through Friday afternoon.

Here’s the SPC severe weather outlook for Saturday and Saturday night, which also shows a marginal severe weather risk for sections of Minnesota and Wisconsin:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

River level update

It’s great to see that rivers are now below flood stage across most of Minnesota.

You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

There are flood warnings in a couple of areas along the Minnesota River. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any green-shaded location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website.  Here’s how the NWS map looked Friday morning:

NWS Twin Cities

If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river in central or southern Minnesota, check here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.