Windy, rainy night; Memorial Day weekend trending nicer?

Our latest in what seems like an endless parade of storms has arrived in Minnesota. First the wind. Then the rain. Hey, at least it’s not snow this time.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model does a good job of capturing the nature of rain bands sweeping through Minnesota through Wednesday.

NOAA NAM 3 km resolution model through 7 p.m. CDT Wednesday, via tropical tidbits

Another inch

Our latest soaking won’t be as heavy as the 1 to 3-plus inch system last weekend. Most forecast models cluster around 1-inch rainfall totals across Minnesota by Thursday morning.

NOAA Global Forecast System rainfall output, via pivotal weather

Record cold week

It’s not your imagination. It really is unseasonably cold this week.

The Twin Cities National Weather Service ran the numbers for the past five days. It’s the coldest stretch on record for these days in May. Ugh.

Memorial Day weekend trending nicer? 

Thursday looks nice across Minnesota. Friday brings more rain and milder temperatures.

The overall weather pattern looks pretty good for Memorial Day weekend. A weak bubble of high pressure protects Minnesota Saturday. That should bring plenty of sunshine, light winds, and highs in the low 70s.

Models still differ on the evolution of a passing front Sunday night into Monday. Some bring it through dry. Others have some rain. Either way, it should be a passing event. Highs in the low 70s look likely again Sunday.

It could be a few degrees cooler on Memorial Day into Tuesday.

NOAA, via Weather Bell

The art of tornado forecasts

Monday’s tornado outbreak in the southern plains was significant. But many forecasters thought it would be much more severe. Here’s an interesting take on the subtle differences between Monday and the April 2011 Birmingham, Alabama mega-outbreak.

Programming Note: I’m hosting a special one-hour Weather Lab and Climate Cast show at noon Wednesday on MPR News stations. We’ll talk about this crazy spring weather, climate change anxiety, and what the birds are telling us about climate change in Minnesota. Tune (call) in at noon Wednesday!

  • Bill H

    I looked up temp and precipitation info for MSP going back to last October 1, and the trend is evident: it’s been unusually cold and wet. Especially since February 1: of the 110 days since then, 72 have been cooler than normal, and 44 days have had measurable rain or snow. Is this ever going to break?