Our latest in what seems like an endless parade of storms has arrived in Minnesota. First the wind. Then the rain. Hey, at least it’s not snow this time.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km model does a good job of capturing the nature of rain bands sweeping through Minnesota through Wednesday.
Our latest soaking won’t be as heavy as the 1 to 3-plus inch system last weekend. Most forecast models cluster around 1-inch rainfall totals across Minnesota by Thursday morning.
Record cold week
It’s not your imagination. It really is unseasonably cold this week.
The Twin Cities National Weather Service ran the numbers for the past five days. It’s the coldest stretch on record for these days in May. Ugh.
If MSP stays below a high of 62 today, 2019 would place in the top 10 all-time coldest 5-day average high temperatures between 5/17-5/21 at MSP.
— NWS Twin Cities (@NWSTwinCities) May 21, 2019
Memorial Day weekend trending nicer?
Thursday looks nice across Minnesota. Friday brings more rain and milder temperatures.
The overall weather pattern looks pretty good for Memorial Day weekend. A weak bubble of high pressure protects Minnesota Saturday. That should bring plenty of sunshine, light winds, and highs in the low 70s.
Models still differ on the evolution of a passing front Sunday night into Monday. Some bring it through dry. Others have some rain. Either way, it should be a passing event. Highs in the low 70s look likely again Sunday.
It could be a few degrees cooler on Memorial Day into Tuesday.
The art of tornado forecasts
Monday’s tornado outbreak in the southern plains was significant. But many forecasters thought it would be much more severe. Here’s an interesting take on the subtle differences between Monday and the April 2011 Birmingham, Alabama mega-outbreak.
One of these was taken shortly before the biggest tornado outbreak in a generation. The other had few tornadoes.
What would you forecast differently based on these soundings? pic.twitter.com/vmVeriLGfX
— Patrick Marsh (@pmarshwx) May 21, 2019
Programming Note: I’m hosting a special one-hour Weather Lab and Climate Cast show at noon Wednesday on MPR News stations. We’ll talk about this crazy spring weather, climate change anxiety, and what the birds are telling us about climate change in Minnesota. Tune (call) in at noon Wednesday!