Windy and cold Sunday, with periods of rain; some wet flakes to the northeast

Sunday will be cooler and windier than Saturday. We’ll have periods of rain across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin, and some folks will see snowflakes too.

What month is this?

Temperature trends 

Our average high temperature is 70 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.  Our Saturday high was 55 at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, but it occurred around one in the morning.  Our afternoon high was around 50 degrees.  We’ll top out in the 40s on Sunday in the Twin Cities, and we’ll share those 40s with much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin:

Some 50s are possible in northwestern Minnesota.

Low temperatures dip into the 30s late Sunday night/early Monday morning;

Highs rebound to the 60s on Monday:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be around 60 on Tuesday, followed by lower 70s Wednesday. We could reach the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.

Rain and thunder and snow

Here’s a rain summary:

  • Scattered thunderstorms spread into south-central and southeastern Minnesota Saturday evening, then expand to the north and east. Patchy Saturday evening showers are possible in northern Minnesota.
  • Periods of rain, with some embedded thunderstorms, are expected over most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin overnight Saturday night. The rain could be heavy at times.
  • Periods of rain are expected on Sunday too, with an isolated  thunderstorm also possible.  Some people will see some snowflakes…more on that shortly.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Saturday evening through Sunday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Saturday evening though Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain or snow. It will rain in some areas that look dry in the NAM loop.

The rain is expected to mix with snow (or change to all snow for awhile) on Sunday from around Mille Lacs Lake over to Hinckley and up to Duluth and into northwestern Wisconsin. Some spots could see accumulations on grassy areas. The higher elevations near the North Shore of Lake Superior might also see a few flakes on Sunday.

Here’s a NWS summary of the likeliest areas to see some flakes on Sunday, with “tonight” in the title referring to Saturday night:

NWS Duluth

High winds have prompted gale warnings for Lake Superior on Sunday:

NWS Duluth

You can check for forecast updates from the National Weather Service offices in Duluth, the Twin Cities, and La Crosse, WI.

Severe weather potential

The Storm Prediction Center of the NWS indicates a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night in parts of south-central and southeastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Marginal risk indicates that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

  • question authority

    Between 9 and 10 tonight (more or less), there was a circular rain system centered over Lake Minnetonka. The area over Lake Minnetonka with a radius of about 25 miles was rain free, but there was a circular band of rain about 20-25 miles wide from Hutchinson to the west and Hudson to the east. What caused that?