The jet stream has been dealing Minnesota’s weather cards since February. The deck is still stacked in favor of frequent storm systems. Our next system arrives late Tuesday.
Spotty showers linger Wednesday. We come up for air with sunshine Thursday before another soaker arrives Friday.
It could be worse. I counted 25 tornadoes across the southern plains Monday night. Flood evacuations are happening in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma.
I have such mixed feelings about even trained weather professionals willfully putting themselves in harm’s way. Hope everybody is OK. This video appears to be from May 17.
— Reed Timmer (@ReedTimmerAccu) May 18, 2019
Heavy rainfall zone
The total area covered by multi-inch rainfall across Oklahoma and Kansas is staggering. The Doppler radar from Tulsa, Okla., paints a wide area of 3- to 6-inch rainfall.
Flood rescues are in progress across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.
‼️MAJOR FLOODING IN EL RENO AREA‼️ WOW… look at all that water! Sky 5 flies over heavy-flooded areas near El Reno in Canadian County. Residents there are urged to avoid travel. #KOCO5 #weather #flooding #storms
— KOCO-5 Oklahoma City (@koconews) May 21, 2019
— Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) May 21, 2019
Minnesota: Wind and rain by Tuesday night
Out next system pushes in Tuesday night. First, winds increase. Wind advisories are up from the Twin Cities west. Gusts to 40-plus mph kick up Tuesday evening.
The rain spreads north from Iowa into Minnesota Tuesday. Showers push toward the metro in the evening.
Heavier rain around midnight?
I like the way the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model paints a few light showers moving into the Twin Cities late afternoon and evening, but holds the heaviest rains (and possible thunder) off until the hours surrounding midnight.
Most models suggest rainfall totals between one-half inch to 1-inch-plus across much of Minnesota.
Pretty nice weekend?
A few models suggest some light shower chances Sunday. But most models keep the bulk of the weekend dry with plenty of sunshine. Highs in the low 70s? We’ll take it after last weekend.
Programming Note: I’m hosting a special one-hour Weather Lab and Climate Cast show at noon Wednesday on MPR News stations.