Weather perfection Wednesday; bumpy storms ahead

In a year with plenty of stormy weather days, this is one to celebrate.

All weather is subjective, but 30-plus years working as a meteorologist in Minnesota tells me that 96.7 percent of all Minnesotans find Wednesday’s weather pleasant, if not exceptional.

Bright blue skies, milder temperatures, and light winds are a good tonic for the weather-weary Minnesota soul this spring.

Get out there.

Forecast highs Wednesday, via National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Cooler by the lake

After a warm start to the morning winds will turn off Lake Superior as colder, denser air pushes inland Wednesday afternoon. A classic lake breeze will hold temperatures in the 50s near Lake Superior.

Bumpy storms Wednesday night

The next low-pressure wave rides into Minnesota Wednesday night. Look for storms to develop in northwestern Minnesota, then rumble across northern Minnesota. Storms look likely to pop in and near the Twin Cities Thursday morning between 6 a.m. and 8 a.m.

I like the way the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s NAM 3 km resolution model handles the coverage and timing of storms overnight into Thursday morning.

NOAA NAM 3 km model from 7 p.m. CDT Wednesday to 8 a.m. CDT Thursday via tropical tidbits

First 80 Thursday?

Many locations in southern Minnesota will see the first 80 degrees temperatures of the year Thursday. The Canadian model pushes temperatures to near 85 degrees in the southeast metro Thursday afternoon.

Canadian model temperatures for 1 p.m. CDT Thursday, via tropical tidbits

Humid too

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model cranks out sticky dew points in the 60s Thursday. Twin Citians may be reaching for the AC switch. Drier air pushes south through northern Minnesota.

Dew point values for 1 p.m. CDT Thursday, via tropical tidbits

Severe risk late Friday

Friday afternoon and evening could feature some strong to severe storms across southern Minnesota. The risk for damaging winds, hail, and an isolated tornado is there.

Gnarly, wet weekend

The timing for rain this weekend is bad.

Waves of rain, wind, and thunder visit Friday night through Sunday. The latest model runs suggest highs may not climb out of the 50s Saturday with wind and rain. NOAA’s GFS model pick up the trend.

NOAA GFS mode Friday through Sunday, via tropical tidbits

Several inches of rain still look likely this weekend.

Temperatures moderate again late next week.

NOAA, via Weather Bell

What a “spring.”