Some rain Friday and Monday, but a dry weekend; hurricane season outlook

This Memorial Day will be much cooler than last Memorial Day. That’s a safe bet, since we hit 100 degrees in the Twin Cities last Memorial Day!

We set a new Memorial Day high temp record last year, a new record high for May 28 and a new record for the earliest 100 degree reading in the metro area in any year. Here’s the National Weather Service tweet from last Memorial Day, with the dates of the previous records:

NWS Twin Cities

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is only in the lower 70s this time of year!

Temperature trends

Friday afternoon high temperatures are expected to range from the 50s in far northern Minnesota to the lower 70s in the far south. Some spots along the North Shore of Lake Superior will top out in the upper 40s.

Saturday highs will be enjoyable, with 60s and 70s in most areas:

Similar highs are on tap for Sunday:

High temps cool a bit on Memorial Day:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach the upper 60s next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain chances

Periods of rain are expected across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Friday morning and early Friday afternoon, with an isolated thunderstorm also possible. Parts of northern Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin could see showers and isolated thunderstorms linger into late afternoon.

One forecast model also shows scattered showers and thunderstorms in northwestern Minnesota Friday evening.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Saturday and Sunday look dry in most areas, but far northern Minnesota could see a passing sprinkle on Saturday.

Periods of rain are expected in most areas on Memorial Day, with a thunderstorm also possible. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday night and Monday:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday night through Monday, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Hurricane season outlook

We are approaching the June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA has released its hurricane season outlook.

According to NOAA:

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season.

The hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to November 30.
For 2019, NOAA predicts a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

The outlook covers the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.