Rainy, windy, raw Wednesday; record flood persistence at St. Paul
Cue the Gales of May? Wednesday will feel like living in a car wash.
Our next inbound weather system brings a windy, wet, raw Wednesday. A strong springtime low-pressure storm shoves rain across most of Minnesota Wednesday. Rain begins in southwest Minnesota overnight, then spreads into the Twin Cities and points northeast Wednesday morning.
NOAA's NAM 3 km resolution model captures the essence of the system. Note the heavier rain clusters moving north Wednesday afternoon, and the transition to wet snowflakes on the back side of the system across central Minnesota. Rain gear mandatory Wednesday. British Open conditions.
Another inch of rain
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The Twin Cities is running about an inch above average for precipitation since March 1, and 2 inches above average so far this year. We add another inch across the southeast half of Minnesota by late Thursday. Forecast models have come into better agreement with coverage and totals.
Flakes mixing in
It's cold enough on the system's backside for a snowy stripe from southwest Minnesota to just northwest of MSP through St. Cloud, Mille Lacs toward the North Shore. The Canadian GEM model seems to have a handle on what could be some slight slushy accumulations. Yes, it's May.
Milder days ahead
Temperatures will not climb out of the 40s Wednesday. We recover into the 60s this weekend. Highs closer to 70 still look likely next week. It's interesting to note that the European model seems to have bombed on predicting a warm weekend a few days ago. Now it projects colder air next week. I'm leaning more toward the American model solutions for next week at this point.
Long Range: Instant summer?
The GFS model is good at teasing us about warmer weather in the 10-day to 2-week time frame. This time the solution seems more plausible to me. Several model runs suggest a warm (and potentially humid) air mass push around the weekend of May 17-18.
Highs pushing 80 degrees with steamy dew points in the 60s to near 70? We'll see if that level of tropical air can reach Minnesota in about 10-12 days.
Stay tuned.
Record flood duration on Mississippi at St. Paul
It's amazing how long the Mississippi River has been above flood stage now in St. Paul. In fact, it blows away the previous 2 records.
The top 3 longest flood events on the Mississippi at St. Paul have now occurred since 2000.