Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin enjoyed sunshine and pleasant temperatures on Sunday. Memorial Day will be cloudy and rainy in many areas.
On to the details.
Our Sunday high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 73 degrees. That was one degree above average for May 26, and it was quite an improvement over the rain, wind and temps in the 40s that we endured last Sunday!
The Sunday high temp at MSP airport was updated to 74 degrees in the Sunday evening climate report.
Metro area highs will probably only reach the lower 60s on Memorial Day, and most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Tuesday will feature a lot of highs in the 60s:
Twin Cities highs are projected to reach around 70 on Wednesday, followed by lower 70s Thursday and mid 70s on Friday.
Rain and thunder chances
Scattered showers will move across parts of northern Minnesota Sunday night, and there will be a chance of scattered showers in the north on Memorial Day. The main rain event will be to the south on Memorial Day.
Some showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into southwestern Minnesota late Sunday evening and spread northeastward overnight Sunday night. Periods of rain, with some embedded thunderstorms, are expected in southern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Memorial Day.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday evening through Monday evening:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain. It will rain in some areas that look dry in the NAM loop, but the loop illustrates the general rain pattern.
Southern Minnesota and portions of the Twin Cities metro area could see some heavy rainfall amounts on Monday. Here’s the NWS rainfall forecast, which was issued Sunday afternoon:
With saturated ground due to our rainy May, there could be flooding in some areas.
Severe weather potential
The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a marginal risk of severe weather Monday and Monday night in portions of far southern Minnesota and southwestern Wisconsin:
Marginal risk means that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible. The SPC outlook will be updated early on Monday.
River levels are rising
Recent rainy weather has caused river levels to rise again across much of southern Minnesota, and rivers have reached flood stage at many locations.
You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.
Here’s the Sunday afternoon hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:
You can see that the Mississippi River had reached minor flood stage at the St. Paul location Sunday afternoon and it’s expected to keep rising until late Tuesday.
The lower portions of some trees on the eastern side of Raspberry Island were underwater Sunday afternoon:
There are flood warnings along some rivers in Minnesota. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any green-shaded location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website.
Here’s how the NWS map looked Sunday evening:
Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the National Weather Service point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you.
If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river in central or southern Minnesota, check here.