A nice Sunday, then rain on Memorial Day; rivers are rising again

It was nice to see sunshine and some decorative clouds on Saturday.  We’ll see enjoyable weather on Sunday, but many areas will have a wet Memorial Day.

On to the details.

Temperature trends

Our average high temperature is 72 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area. That’s about where we’re headed for Sunday highs.  Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have Sunday afternoon highs in the 70s:

There’ll be some 60s in the far north.

Highs in the 50s and 60s are on tap for Memorial Day:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to reach around 70 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by lower 70s Thursday and Friday.

Rain and thunder chances

Northwestern Minnesota will have a chance of a Sunday morning shower. Northwestern and north-central Minnesota could see some scattered showers later Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

More organized showers and thunderstorms are expected to move into southwestern Minnesota late Sunday evening and spread northeastward overnight Sunday night. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely on Memorial Day across most of southern and central Minnesota (including the Twin Cities), plus western Wisconsin. There could be some 1 to 2 inch rain totals by Monday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday morning through Monday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday morning through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain. It will rain in some areas that look dry in the NAM loop, but the loop illustrates the general rain pattern.

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows a slight risk of severe weather Monday and Monday night for several Minnesota counties along the Iowa border, with a marginal risk elsewhere in southern Minnesota, including the southern portion of the Twin Cities metro area:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

Slight risk means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, while marginal risk indicates that an isolated severe thunderstorm is possible:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

River levels are rising

Recent rainy weather has caused river levels to rise again across much of southern Minnesota, and rivers have reached flood stage at many locations.

You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

Here’s the Saturday evening hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

NOAA/NWS/U.S. Geological Survey

You can see that the Mississippi River is expected to reach flood stage at the St. Paul location by late Sunday and keep rising until late Tuesday.

The lower portions of some trees on the eastern side of Raspberry Island were under water Saturday evening:

May 25, 2019      City of St. Paul webcam

There are flood warnings along some rivers in Minnesota. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any green-shaded location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website.

Here’s how the NWS map looked Saturday evening:

NWS Twin Cities

Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the National Weather Service point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you.

If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river in central or southern Minnesota, check here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.

  • Dave

    I wonder if Norman Rockwell could do a drawing for the Saturday Evening Hydrography :p