Showers at times, a t-storm is also possible; latest info on the Thursday snow

It feels like spring today, with mild temps and rain in the forecast. April is a fickle month, and wintry weather will make a comeback Wednesday and Thursday.

So it goes in Minnesota!

Temperature trends

Sunday highs are expected to range from 40s in northern Minnesota to 60s in the far south. We could flirt with 60 in the Twin Cities metro area, depending on the timing of showers and thunderstorms. Our average high this time of year is 53 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Highs in the 60s are expected across much of southern Minnesota and parts of central Minnesota Monday afternoon:

Metro area highs are projected to reach the mid 50s Tuesday, followed by lower 40s Wednesday and upper 30s Thursday and Friday.

Rain and thunder

Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see periods of showers this Sunday, with a few embedded t-storms also possible.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Northern Minnesota could see some scattered showers on Monday.

Snow potential Wednesday and Thursday

Forecast models show a strong low pressure system spinning rain and snow over the upper Midwest Wednesday into Thursday and early Friday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows this potential precipitation pattern from Wednesday into Friday morning:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Wednesday through Friday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The storm track and heavy snow pattern shifted southward since yesterday’s GFS model runs, and the models could shift again as we get closer to Wednesday.

In case you’re wondering, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model gives the metro area heavy snow much of Thursday and Thursday night:

ECMWF forecast for Minneapolis via Norwegian Met Institute

Temperatures are in degrees Celsius in the ECMWF model.

The temperature profile in the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere will have a huge affect on the timing and location of rain, a rain/snow mix, and all snow from this storm.  Those details will be clearer as we get closer to Wednesday.

Here’s a summary, from the Twin Cities NWS:

Red River is rising

Thankfully, the Mississippi River at St. Paul and the St. Croix River at Stillwater have fallen from the crests that they reached about a week ago. Most spots along the Minnesota River continue to see falling river levels as well.

You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

The Red River along the Minnesota-North Dakota border is still rising.  Hydrographs for locations along the Red River can be found here.

Here’s the Sunday morning hydrograph for the Red River at Fargo, N.D., which is at major flood stage and still rising:

NOAA/NWS/U.S. Geological Survey

The Red River at East Grand Forks, Minn., is expected to reach major flood stage on Wednesday. Their hydrograph shows a dramatic rise as we go through the next 5 days:

NOAA/NWS/U.S. Geological Survey

There are numerous flood warnings in effect. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website.

Areas with flood warnings are shaded green on the NWS main page; here’s how the map looked Sunday morning:

NWS Twin Cities

The latest flood warnings for northwestern Minnesota can be found on the National Weather Service Grand Forks, N.D., office site. Here’s how their map looked Sunday morning:

NWS Grand Forks

The dense fog advisory in parts of northwestern Minnesota runs through this Sunday morning.

Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the weather service point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you.

The NWS also posts some flooding details for central and southern Minnesota here. If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river, check here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.