Metro shower chance, with a few flakes possible; heavy snow far southern Minnesota

It sometimes snows in April. When it does, the April sun typically melts it quickly. That's a comforting thought for areas of far southern Minnesota that will see the most snow this Saturday.

The big picture

A low pressure system will move across far northern Missouri today, spinning moisture over Iowa and southern portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Saturday morning through Saturday evening:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow and rain.

Snow amounts and warnings/advisories

Most of the Twin Cities metro area will see rain showers at times today, and the rain showers could mix a few wet snowflakes. Parts of the north metro will probably be dry most of today. Some spots in the south metro might have some very light snow accumulation on grassy areas, which would melt quickly.

A few spots in southwestern Minnesota had thundersnow earlier this morning, and thundersnow could happen in parts of southern Minnesota this afternoon as well.

National Weather Service snowfall forecast issued Saturday morning indicated the potential for 4 or more inches of snow in far southern Minnesota this Saturday:

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for several counties in far south-central Minnesota from 7 a.m. to 3 p.m. today, and for several counties in far southeastern Minnesota from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. today:

The remaining counties of southern Minnesota are in a winter weather advisory for lesser snow amounts. The Twin Cities metro area is not included in any warnings or advisories today.

___________________________________________________________________________

Midday update

The NWS has trimmed back the northern edge of the winter weather advisories:

Also, the north metro and Minneapolis and St. Paul will probably stay dry this afternoon. The main rain shower chance in the Twin Cities metro area during the early afternoon hours will be in southern portions of Scott and Dakota counties of the south metro, where a few stray snowflakes will also be possible.

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Details of the winter storm warning in far south-central Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

321 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING...

.After initially starting as rain, a period of heavy snow is

expected across southern Minnesota from this morning into early

afternoon. The latest trend has the snow shifting to the south

along I-90 and the Minnesota/Iowa border. Total snowfall in the

warning area will range from 4 to 7 inches, with 1 to 4 inches

expected in the advisory area. Local maximum amounts of 8 inches

are possible. East to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts

to 30 mph will accompany the snowfall, which will lead to some

blowing and drifting.

Temperatures will rise above freezing quickly after the snow ends

and travel conditions are expected to improve significantly by

mid afternoon.

MNZ091>093-272000-

/O.EXT.KMPX.WS.W.0010.190427T1200Z-190427T2000Z/

Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-

Including the cities of Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea

321 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO

3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7

inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Brown, Nicollet and Watonwan Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 AM this morning to 3 PM CDT this afternoon.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy

blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel hazardous. Conditions will improve

Saturday afternoon.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

And details of the winter storm warning in far southeastern Minnesota:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service La Crosse WI

752 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

...Some Travel Impacts Expected Today...

.Through 11 AM, the rain across southeast Minnesota, northeast

Iowa, and southwest Wisconsin will gradually change over to snow.

1 to 2 inch per hour snowfall rates are possible across northeast

Iowa and southwest Wisconsin between 9 AM and 3 PM. Highest

totals of 4 of 8 inches of snow are expected south of Interstate

90.

The bulk of the accumulations will occur on grassy and elevated

surfaces. However, heavier bursts of snow will manage to

accumulate on roadways, leading to slushy accumulations with

impacts to travel.

In addition, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph combined with the wet

snow will likely lead to some tree damage and perhaps isolated

power outages.

The location of the heaviest snow band may still change a bit.

Monitor the latest weather information closely.

IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ094>096-WIZ053>055-061-272100-

/O.CON.KARX.WS.W.0011.000000T0000Z-190428T0000Z/

Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Allamakee-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-

Clayton-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-Grant-

Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Waukon,

Charles City, New Hampton, Oelwein, Elkader, Austin, Preston,

Caledonia, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center,

and Platteville

752 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS

EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow...accumulations of 4 to 8 inches expected.

Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest Wisconsin, north central and

northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN...through 7 PM CDT Tonight.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be difficult at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you

must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your

vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Iowa can be found on-line at

511ia.org, in Minnesota at 511mn.org, and in Wisconsin at

511wi.gov or by calling 5 1 1.

You can check the latest forecasts from the NWS offices in the Twin Cities, Sioux Falls, S.D. and La Crosse, Wis.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can check snowfall amounts as they are posted by the NWS this afternoon and evening.

Temperature trends

Many spots in the northern half of Minnesota will see highs in the lower 50s Saturday afternoon, with some 40s near Lake Superior. West-central Minnesota through the Twin Cities metro area will peak in the 40s.  Parts of far southern Minnesota will stay in the 30s.

Highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s will be common on Sunday:

Those temps are cool; our average high temp is 64 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities metro area.

Metro area highs are projected to be in the low to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday, followed by mid to upper 50s Wednesday through Friday.

River levels 

There are numerous flood warnings still in effect along rivers in Minnesota. You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any green-shaded location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website. The latest flood warnings for northwestern Minnesota can be found on the NWS Grand Forks, N.D. site.

You can click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

Here’s the Saturday morning hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul:

It's nice to see the downward trend continue!

Projected river levels are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and the NWS point forecasts for the latest info on the rivers near you.

If you’d like to scroll through hydrographs along a certain river in central or southern Minnesota, check here. Hydrographs for the Red River can be found here.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.