Winter storm will dump heavy, wet snow on Minnesota and western Wisconsin

This is a major winter storm that's hitting us today and tonight.

It's already bringing some snow and light freezing rain to southwestern Minnesota this morning, and that will transition to mostly all snow as it spreads north and northeastward this morning and afternoon. The snow continues overnight. Southeastern Minnesota will see rain or a wintry mix today that changes to mostly snow this evening.

The Twin Cities metro area is expected to see rain showers or a rain/snow mix by around midday, with some patchy areas of light freezing rain also possible. The rain or mix is expected to transition to mostly snow by late afternoon, with heavy, wet snow this evening and overnight tonight.

The big picture

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow or rain.

How much snow?

Here's the National Weather Service depiction of weekend snow totals:

There could be quite a range of totals across the metro area. I can imagine close to 9 inches of snow by Sunday morning in the far northwest corner of the metro, and around 5 inches in the far southeast corner.  6 or 7 inches is a first estimate for the inner core of the metro area. The timing of the changeover from rain or a rain/snow mix to all snow will be a huge factor in our final snow totals.   Western Minnesota will see many double-digit snow totals.

Warnings

Winter storm warnings for heavy snow, and in some cases snow plus light freezing rain, cover much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin today and tonight:

The winter storm warning in the Twin Cities metro area begins at noon today and runs until 7 a.m. Sunday.

Here's a storm discussion, plus details of the Twin Cities metro area portion of the winter storm warning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

558 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect north of a line from

St. James to Faribault to Eau Claire, and a Winter Weather

Advisory continues for the rest of southern Minnesota today into

early Sunday.

Snow will move into western and southern Minnesota on Saturday

morning, reach eastern Minnesota around midday, and spread across

western Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening. Some rain,

sleet, or freezing rain will mix with the snow at times today

south of a line from Redwood Falls to the Twin Cities and Eau

Claire. Snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected from

west central into central Minnesota through early evening before

easing tonight. The snow is expected to end by early morning

Sunday. Snowfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are likely in the

warning area, with the highest amounts over west central

Minnesota. Snow totals of 2 to 4 inches along with light ice

accumulations are expected in the advisory area across southern

Minnesota where a longer duration of a wintry mix is possible.

Strong northwest winds will develop tonight and Sunday morning

with gusts of 40 mph possible across southern and western

Minnesota. This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow,

but widespread blizzard conditions are not currently expected.

The Winter Storm Warning continues through Sunday morning across

western and portions of southern Minnesota due to the potential

for blowing snow.

MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-068-WIZ023-092000-

/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0008.190309T1800Z-190310T1200Z/

Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-

Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-St. Croix-

Including the cities of Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Foley,

Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis,

Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chaska, and Hudson

558 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY TO

7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow

accumulations of 6 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of a

light glaze expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Wisconsin and central and

east central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From noon CST today to 7 AM CDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet

and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can check the latest forecasts from the NWS offices in the Twin Cities,  Grand Forks, N.D., Sioux Falls, S.D., La Crosse, Wis., and Duluth.

This Updraft blog will be updated by around 930 a.m.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.