Warmth for our first full day of spring; river flooding update

Our average Twin Cities high temperature is 44 degrees this time of year. We’re likely to shoot right by that temp Thursday, ending up with highs around 50 in the metro area. We could even see a few lower 50s.

Spring has sprung!

Temperature trends

Minnesota highs will be mostly in the 40s Thursday, with some spots in the metro area and the southeast reaching the lower 50s.

Friday highs retreat a bit, with some 30s in the far north and in parts of west-central Minnesota. Most other spots will see highs in the 40s:

Highs rebound to the 40s to mid 50s on Saturday:

Sunday highs are expected to range from the upper 30s northwest to around 50 southeast:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the lower-40s Monday, followed by upper-40s Tuesday and mid-50s next Wednesday.

Rain and snow chances

We’re looking at mostly dry weather through Saturday, then a rain shower chance moves into southern and central Minnesota on Sunday, with a chance of snow showers or a rain/snow mix in the north.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Sunday and Sunday evening:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Sunday and Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

River flooding update

There’s flooding either happening or forecast to happen along many Minnesota and western Wisconsin rivers.

You can get flood warning updates by clicking on any location on the National Weather Service Twin Cities website. Areas with flood warnings are shaded green on their main page, and here’s how the map looked Thursday morning:

NWS Twin Cities

The Thursday morning flood warning summary lists the following locations:

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
125 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

…The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Minnesota…Wisconsin..
Cottonwood River at New Ulm affecting Brown County
Cottonwood River Above Springfield  affecting Brown County
Minnesota River at Montevideo affecting Chippewa…Lac qui Parle
and Yellow Medicine Counties
Minnesota River At Morton  affecting Renville County
Minnesota River At New Ulm affecting Brown and Nicollet Counties
Minnesota River at Mankato affecting Blue Earth and Nicollet
Counties
Minnesota River at Henderson MN19 affecting Le Sueur…Scott and
Sibley Counties
Minnesota River near Jordan affecting Carver and Scott Counties
Minnesota River at Savage affecting Dakota…Hennepin and Scott
Counties
South Fork Crow River below Mayer affecting Carver County
Crow River at Rockford affecting Hennepin and Wright Counties
Mississippi River at St. Paul affecting Dakota…Ramsey and
Washington Counties
Mississippi River near Hastings L/D 2 affecting Dakota…
Washington and Pierce Counties
Chippewa River at Durand affecting Buffalo and Pepin Counties
Redwood River near Redwood Falls affecting Redwood County

.Overview…

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around…Don`t Drown.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local radio or TV station
for the latest information concerning this flood event.

Here are details for the Minnesota river near Jordan:

125 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
The Minnesota River near Jordan.
* until further notice.
* At 12:45 AM Thursday the stage was 27.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 25.0 feet.
* Forecast…The river will continue rising to near 31.8 feet by
early Tuesday morning then begin falling.
* Impact…At 29.5 feet…Highway 41 at Chaska may close when the
river reaches this stage.
* Impact…At 26.7 feet…The bridge at Scott County Road 9 and Carver
County Road 11/Jonathan Carver Parkway will be closed.
* Impact…At 25.0 feet…Low lying areas and some roads along the
river begin to flood and private sanitary sewers may experience
problems.

The flood warning for the Mississippi River at St. Paul starts late Saturday night:

MNC037-123-163-221224-
/O.CON.KMPX.FL.W.0014.190324T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPM5.3.SM.190324T0900Z.190328T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
125 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
The Mississippi River at St. Paul.
* from late Saturday night until further notice.
* At  1:00 AM Thursday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast…Rise above flood stage by Sunday morning and continue to
rise to near 17.5 feet by Wednesday evening. additional rises are
possible thereafter.
* Impact…At 18.0 feet…Warner Road may become impassable due to
high water.
* Impact…At 17.5 feet…Harriet Island begins to become submerged.
* Impact…At 14.0 feet…Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to
experience flooding.
* Impact…At 13.3 feet…Water begins to encroach on Water St.

You can also click on any location on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service  (AHPS) site to get hydrographs of recent and forecast river levels. Some locations list levels in feet above sea level, others list levels in feet above a local reference point.

As of Thursday morning, this was the hydrograph for the Mississippi River at St. Paul, which is expected to rise by 9 feet between this morning and next Wednesday:

NOAA/NWS/U.S. Geological Survey

Projected crests are updated on a regular basis, so check back to the AHPS site and NWS point forecast for the latest info on the rivers near you.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.