Several inches of wet snow for the metro area; highest snow totals in western Minnesota

Slightly warmer temperatures late this afternoon delayed our changeover from rain to wet snow in the Twin Cities metro area. We'll see the wet snow this evening into the overnight hours, but snow totals will be a bit lower than earlier forecasts.

I don't think too many people will complain about shoveling a little less snow!

The big picture

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from late Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow or rain. The NAM model shows metro area rain changing to a rain/snow/sleet mix then to wet snow Saturday evening, with wet snow continuing overnight. Thundersnow is also a possibility Saturday evening.

How much snow?

Here's an updated NWS graphic that depicts the snow potential from this storm:

The heaviest metro area snow is expected to be in the 7 p.m. to 1 a.m. time frame.

Notice the double-digit snowfall totals in much of western Minnesota from this winter storm.

I expect snow totals by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning to range from about 7 or 8 inches in the far northwest corner of the Twin Cities metro area to 4 or 5 inches in the far southeast corner of the metro. Minneapolis and St. Paul look to be somewhere in the 5 to 6 inch range.

Warnings

Winter storm warnings for heavy snow, reduced visibilities and difficult travel conditions remain in effect this Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night across much of Minnesota and Wisconsin:

Here’s a storm discussion, plus details of the Twin Cities metro area portion of the winter storm warning, which runs through this evening and overnight:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

243 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect north of a line from

St. James to Faribault to Eau Claire, and a Winter Weather

Advisory continues for the rest of southern Minnesota today into

early Sunday.

There will be a period of sleet, rain, or freezing rain in

southern Minnesota, and into west central Wisconsin before

changing over to snow this evening. The best area of receiving

the mix bag of precipitation will occur from New Ulm, to St.

Cloud, Forest Lake, and into west central Wisconsin through 6 pm.

Once the mix bag of precipitation changes over to snow, it will

become heavy at times with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per

hour. The snow is expected to end by early morning Sunday.

Snowfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are likely in west central

Minnesota. Areas in east central Minnesota and western Wisconsin

will see about 5 to 8 inches of snow. Snow totals of 2 to 4 inches

are expected in the advisory area across southern Minnesota where

a longer duration of a wintry mix is possible.

Strong northwest winds will develop tonight and Sunday morning

with gusts near 35 mph possible across southern and western

Minnesota. This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow.

The Winter Storm Warning continues through Sunday morning across

western and portions of southern Minnesota due to the potential

for blowing snow.

MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-068-WIZ023-100445-

/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0008.000000T0000Z-190310T1200Z/

Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-

Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-St. Croix-

Including the cities of Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Foley,

Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis,

Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chaska, and Hudson

243 PM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected through mid to late

afternoon, before changing over to heavy snow. Total snow

accumulations of 5 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a light

glaze expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Wisconsin and central and

east central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From noon CST today to 7 AM CDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you

must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your

vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

Updates

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can check the latest forecasts from the NWS offices in the Twin Cities,  Grand Forks, N.D., Sioux Falls, S.D., La Crosse, Wis., and Duluth.

Updated road conditions will be posted by the Minnesota and Wisconsin transportation departments.

You can check snow accumulations as they are posted by the National Weather Service. Hover over a location on the National Weather Service snow map site to see the snow total and the time of observation.

Spring ahead

It's that time of year. This recent message was from NOAA: