Friday snow will slow afternoon commute; colder through the weekend

We need a repair person to fix that snow switch, which has been stuck in the "on" position for several weeks.

As we shovel and plow Friday's snow, it might help to remember that all these mounds of snow will melt -- eventually.

On a positive note, Saturday will be a great day for cross-country skiers, snowmobilers and kids with sleds and snowboards.

The big picture

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Snow is spreading across southern and central Minnesota this morning and the area of snow will expand into western Wisconsin Friday afternoon.

Accumulating snow begins in the Twin Cities metro area by late morning. Snow will continue in the metro area and much of the southern two-thirds of Minnesota, plus western Wisconsin, through Friday afternoon and then taper off Friday evening.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern from late Friday morning through Friday evening:

rt301rad2
NOAA NAM simulated radar from late Friday morning through Friday evening, via tropicaltidbits

There’s expected to be a swath of 3- to 4-inch snow accumulations that includes the Twin Cities metro area and much of southern and central Minnesota, plus parts of western Wisconsin:

A few spots could see 5 inches of snow by Friday evening.

Winter weather advisories have been issued for many counties, including the Twin Cities metro area:

rt301mpx4

The metro area winter weather advisory began at 9 a.m. and runs to 9 p.m. this Friday. Advisories in western Wisconsin begin at noon.

Advisory details:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

258 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

.Light to occasionally moderate snow will spread across Minnesota

and Wisconsin today. Accumulations of 3 to 4 inches are expected.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for much of central and

southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Plan on slippery

road conditions for the evening commute.

MNZ050>053-059>063-066>070-074>077-082>085-011800-

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0021.190301T1500Z-190302T0300Z/

Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-

Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown-Nicollet-

Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-

Including the cities of Foley, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City,

Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hutchinson,

Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings, New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur,

Faribault, St James, Mankato, Waseca, and Owatonna

258 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS

MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4

inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central

Minnesota.

* WHEN...From 9 AM to 9 PM CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The

hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

___________________________________________________________________________

9:45 a.m. Update

The NWS has expanded the winter weather advisories to include several counties in far southern Minnesota and west-central Minnesota:

rt301mpx6
NWS Twin Cities

Here's a fresh advisory discussion:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

935 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

...ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

.Light to occasionally moderate snow will spread across Minnesota

and Wisconsin today. Accumulations of 3 to 4 inches are expected.

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for much of central and

southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Plan on slippery

road conditions for the evening commute.

MNZ050>053-059>063-066>070-074>077-082>085-012345-

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0021.000000T0000Z-190302T0300Z/

Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-

Washington-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Brown-Nicollet-

Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-

Including the cities of Foley, Elk River, Cambridge, Center City,

Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Hutchinson,

Gaylord, Chaska, Shakopee, Hastings, New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur,

Faribault, St James, Mankato, Waseca, and Owatonna

935 AM CST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS

EVENING...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and south central

Minnesota.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM CST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The

hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

__________________________________________________________________________

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can check the latest forecasts from the NWS offices in the Twin CitiesGrand Forks, N.D., Sioux Falls, S.D., La Crosse, Wis., and Duluth.

Updated road conditions will be posted by the Minnesota and Wisconsin transportation departments.

You can check snow accumulations as they are posted by the National Weather Service. Hover over a location on the National Weather Service snow map site to see the snow total and the time of observation.

Temperature trends

Highs Friday are expected to reach the teens across most of Minnesota, with lower 20s in the Twin Cities metro area and southeastern Minnesota.

Saturday highs only reach the single digits in west-central and northwestern Minnesota, with mostly teens elsewhere:

rt302h2

Sunday highs stay below zero in much of western Minnesota, and only rise slightly above zero in the east:

rt303h2

Wind chills will be very cold Sunday morning and Monday morning:

rt301chill
NWS Twin Cities

Temps improve a bit by the middle of next week.

Twin Cities metro area highs reach about 16 degrees Tuesday, followed by lower 20s Wednesday and Thursday. No big snowstorms are expected during the Monday through Thursday period.

Snowy March?

Friday's snow doesn't necessarily indicate that this will be a snowy March.

March is typically our third snowiest month of the year in the Twin Cities, with an average March snow total of 10.2 inches.

If we had judged February by the first few days of the month, we wouldn't have suspected a record snowfall total of 39 inches in the Twin Cities. We didn't have any measurable snow during the first four days of February:

rt301clim2
NWS data for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

By the way, February started out very mild, but the average temperature for the entire month was 8 degrees colder than normal:

rt301clim4
NOAA/NWS data for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

The number of heating degree days was 17.6 percent higher than normal, so we're likely to see higher than normal heating bills for February.

Think spring!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.