Latest snow shot delivers; rumors of milder air ahead?
The forecast models have done a remarkably good job over the past 6 weeks handling waves of snow system across Minnesota. Our latest snow system delivered pretty much as expected. We endured yet another rush hour slog Friday afternoon. Now we watch the next Arctic front drop in Saturday with gusty northwest winds.
I keep thinking about our Minnesota plow drivers over the past weeks. They've done an incredible job keeping us moving during the snowiest February and 4th snowiest month of all time in the Twin Cities and much of Minnesota. I hope they're getting enough sleep. Give your local plow crew a hug or buy them a beer when you see them.
Friday snow delivers
Friday's snow system delivered. The model predictions of widespread 2" to 4" snowfall totals across Minnesota look solid. As the flakes fade an army of dozens of NWS cooperative and citizen observers step outside and measure the snowfall totals.
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Again.
You can check the latest totals as they roll in here.
Last subzero in sight?
By my count, we've logged 25 days at or below zero at MSP Airport this season. That's slightly higher than the long-term average of 23 days. We add 2 more in the Twin Cities Sunday and Monday morning. I can see some records falling this weekend.
Temperatures moderate later next week. We still hover below average, but it will feel noticeably milder. I could see many bank thermometers flashing 30-degrees by next weekend.
I can't guarantee next week will deliver the last subzero of the season in the Twin Cities. But I'd say the chances are much better than 50-50.
Milder air in sight?
Again, don't bet the farm on this. We take longer-range forecast data with a pile of salt. But I'm still seeing consistent model trends that suggest significantly milder air on the way in the March 11-15 time frame. The upper air progs suggest a milder Pacific flow once again.
NOAA's GFS model cranks out the first 40-degree temperature I've seen so far this season on March 15.
Could this be too optimistic? Yes. Will we get more snow? Yes. Does it mean spring will come gushing in? No.
But I'm seeing a trend. Stay tuned.