Wintry mix, then heavy, wet snow; update on the timing and snow amounts

Here we go again.

Western Minnesota has seen snow and a wintry mix this Saturday morning. That combo will spread into eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin as we go through the afternoon and evening hours.

On to the details

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from late Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon:

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NOAA NAM simulated radar from Saturday late morning through Sunday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow or rain. The NAM model shows rain or a wintry mix moving into the metro area between 1 p.m. and 2 p.m., then a changeover to all snow later this afternoon or early this evening.  Thundersnow is also a possibility late this afternoon and this evening.

If you'd like to see another forecast model, here you go.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model shows our Twin Cities precipitation starting as rain, then a wintery mix. It shows all snow from 6 p.m. through this evening:

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ECMWF forecast for Twin Cities, via the Norwegian Meteorological Center.

13:00 on the Euro model is 1 p.m. CST, 18:00 is 6 p.m. CST.  Temperatures are in degrees Celsius.

I wouldn't be surprised if it is all snow in parts of the west/northwest metro by late afternoon.

How much snow?

Here’s the National Weather Service depiction of weekend snow totals:

The snow ends by around sunrise on Sunday in the Twin Cities metro area.

There could be quite a range of totals across the metro area. I can imagine close to 9 inches of snow by Sunday morning in the far northwest corner of the metro, and around 5 or 6 inches in the far southeast corner. 6 or 7 inches is my estimate for Minneapolis and St. Paul. The timing of the changeover from rain or a rain/snow/sleet mix to all snow will be a huge factor in our final snow totals. West-central Minnesota and parts of northwestern Minnesota will probably see many double-digit snow totals.

Warnings

Winter storm warnings for heavy snow, the possibility of some light freezing rain, plus low visibilities and poor travel conditions cover much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin today and tonight:

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NWS Twin Cities
rt309gfk4
NWS Grand Forks

Here’s a storm discussion, plus details of the Twin Cities metro area portion of the winter storm warning, which runs from noon Saturday to 7 a.m. on Sunday:

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

558 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...MAJOR WINTER STORM TODAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...

.A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect north of a line from

St. James to Faribault to Eau Claire, and a Winter Weather

Advisory continues for the rest of southern Minnesota today into

early Sunday.

Snow will move into western and southern Minnesota on Saturday

morning, reach eastern Minnesota around midday, and spread across

western Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening. Some rain,

sleet, or freezing rain will mix with the snow at times today

south of a line from Redwood Falls to the Twin Cities and Eau

Claire. Snow rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected from

west central into central Minnesota through early evening before

easing tonight. The snow is expected to end by early morning

Sunday. Snowfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are likely in the

warning area, with the highest amounts over west central

Minnesota. Snow totals of 2 to 4 inches along with light ice

accumulations are expected in the advisory area across southern

Minnesota where a longer duration of a wintry mix is possible.

Strong northwest winds will develop tonight and Sunday morning

with gusts of 40 mph possible across southern and western

Minnesota. This will lead to areas of blowing and drifting snow,

but widespread blizzard conditions are not currently expected.

The Winter Storm Warning continues through Sunday morning across

western and portions of southern Minnesota due to the potential

for blowing snow.

MNZ043>045-050>053-059>063-068-WIZ023-092000-

/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0008.190309T1800Z-190310T1200Z/

Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-

Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-St. Croix-

Including the cities of Little Falls, Princeton, Mora, Foley,

Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Monticello, Minneapolis,

Blaine, St Paul, Stillwater, Chaska, and Hudson

558 AM CST Sat Mar 9 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CST TODAY TO

7 AM CDT SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow

accumulations of 6 to 10 inches and ice accumulations of a

light glaze expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Wisconsin and central and

east central Minnesota.

* WHEN...From noon CST today to 7 AM CDT Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet

and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can check the latest forecasts from the NWS offices in the Twin CitiesGrand Forks, N.D., Sioux Falls, S.D., La Crosse, Wis., and Duluth.

Updated road conditions will be posted by the Minnesota and Wisconsin transportation departments.

You can check snow accumulations as they are posted by the National Weather Service. Hover over a location on the National Weather Service snow map site to see the snow total and the time of observation.

Shoveling safety

This will be a heavy, wet snow. It'll be harder to shovel and plow than those fluffy snows of February.

Here are some snow shoveling tips, from the NWS:

Temperature trends

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see highs in the lower 30s today.

We retreat to the 20s on Sunday:

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Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the upper 20s Monday, followed by mid 30s Tuesday and lower 40s Wednesday. Highs retreat to the upper 30s Thursday, followed by lower 30s on Friday.

Some of our snow cover will be melting as we go through the week.