Sunday snow update; heavy snow is possible Monday night and Tuesday

We really don’t need another batch of snow right now, but it’s on the way.

Much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will have snow on Sunday, which should taper off west to east later in the day.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Sunday and Sunday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar Sunday through Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The highest snow totals are expected in southeastern Minnesota:

NWS Twin Cities

Scott, Dakota and Washington counties of the Twin Cities metro area are included in a winter weather advisory from 6 a.m. Sunday to 6 p.m. Sunday. The winter weather advisory includes south-central and southeastern Minnesota and west-central and southwestern Wisconsin:

NWS Twin Cities

The winter weather advisory in Cottonwood and Jackson counties of southwestern Minnesota runs from 4 a.m. Sunday to 3 p.m. Sunday.

Here are details of the portion of the advisory that includes the south and eastern parts of the metro area on Sunday:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
254 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

…ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW DEVELOPING…

.A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin from 6 AM Sunday
morning, to 6 PM Sunday evening. The advisory is mainly south of
a line from New Ulm, to Prior Lake, and Cottage Grove in
Minnesota, and from River Falls to Bloomer, and southward in
Wisconsin.

Snow is expected to develop along the Iowa border toward sunrise
Sunday, and spread rapidly northeast across far southern Minnesota
by noon. It will also spread into west central Wisconsin by the
early afternoon. Although the snow is not expected to be heavy,
the best time for accumulating snowfall will occur between the
late morning, through the mid afternoon hours. As the snow ends by
Sunday evening, areas in the advisory will receive 3 to 4 inches
of snow, with locally higher amounts possible. Not much wind will
accompany this storm, but some drifting is likely in open country.

The main hazard will be snow covered roads with slippery
conditions developing.

MNZ063-069-070-074>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ023>028-100500-
/O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0012.190210T1200Z-190211T0000Z/
Washington-Scott-Dakota-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
Including the cities of Stillwater, Shakopee, Hastings, New Ulm,
St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato,
Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, Albert Lea, Hudson,
River Falls, Prescott, Menomonie, Durand, Chippewa Falls,
and Eau Claire
254 PM CST Sat Feb 9 2019

…WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY…

* WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 4
inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

* WHERE…Portions of west central Wisconsin and east central,
south central and southeast Minnesota.

* WHEN…From 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery
roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in
either state.

The remainder of the metro area is expected to see snow totals closer to two inches.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

You can check the latest forecasts from the NWS offices in the Twin Cities, Sioux Falls, S.D. and La Crosse, Wis.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs are expected to range from the single digits in far northwestern Minnesota to the mid 20s in the far southeast:

Twin Cities metro area highs are projected to be in the mid to upper 20s on Monday and Tuesday, then around 20 on Wednesday. We’re looking at highs in the mid 20s Thursday and Friday.

Monday night/Tuesday snowstorm potential

Computer models continue to show a strong low pressure system tracking to our southeast on Monday night and Tuesday, spinning plenty of moisture over Minnesota and Wisconsin.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from late Monday through Tuesday:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of snow or rain.

The Twin Cities metro area and much of the southern half of Minnesota, as well western Wisconsin, could get heavy snow from the Monday night/Tuesday storm:

NWS Twin Cities

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some double-digit snow totals.

Check forecast updates as we get closer to Monday night.

Hawaiian Islands   

Does the snow and cold have you dreaming about a Hawaiian vacation?

This would not have been a good weekend to visit.

Extremely strong winds and destructive high surf are forecast for parts of the Hawaiian Island chain this weekend:

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.