Some flakes as winds pick up this afternoon; cold sunshine tomorrow

What a comeback!

Two weeks ago our season snowfall total was running about eighteen inches below normal at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

After setting a record for the snowiest first twelve days of Feb. in the Twin Cities, we’re now 2.3 inches above normal for this point in the snow season:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather data for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

By the way, it says snowfall since July 1 because snow seasons start July 1 and end June 30 for climatological records. We’ve never seen measurable snow in July at MSP airport!

Snow showers

An area of snow showers will move across Minnesota this Valentine’s Day, with the best chance of snow showers in the metro area from around noon to 3 p.m., give or take an hour.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Thursday and Thursday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar Thursday and Thursday evening, via tropicaltidbits

A coating to less than one-half inch of snow is possible in the metro area.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you’ll also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Snow and blowing snow will reduce visibilities today in counties bordering the Red River:

NWS Grand Forks

 

Temperature trends

Northwestern Minnesota saw its high temps early Thursday morning. The Twin Cities metro area could reach the mid 20s by late morning, with falling afternoon temps as the northwesterly winds pick up. Metro temps could be in the middle teens with wind-chills below zero by 5 p.m. or so.

Friday highs will only reach the single digits in western Minnesota with teens to the east:

Teens will be widespread Saturday afternoon:

Some spots in the southeast will reach the lower 20s.

Similar highs are on tap for Sunday:

Metro area highs are projected to reach around 20 on Monday, followed by upper teens Tuesday and lower 20s next Wednesday.

Our average high temp on Feb. 18 is 30 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Sunday flakes

Most of central and southern Minnesota should see some snowflakes overnight Saturday night and on Sunday.  The snow might start as early as Saturday evening in southwestern Minnesota.

NOAA’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Saturday evening through Sunday evening:

NOAA GFS precipitation rate (mm/hour) Saturday evening through Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

It doesn’t look like a huge amount of snow, but a few inches could accumulate, especially in west-central and southern Minnesota.

Check for updates.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.