Snow blitz: 5 to 10 inches likely by evening

It’s here.

Our latest winter storm pastes most of Minnesota with heavy snow Wednesday. Snowfall rates are reaching 1 to 2 inches per hour at times. Winter storm warnings are up for most of the state.

Prolific snow producer

This system is primed to produce heavy snowfall totals Wednesday.

The heaviest bursts of snow in the Twin Cities favor the morning and midday hours. Intensity may dial back a bit in the afternoon. Snow will end from south to north Wednesday evening.

Here’s the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model showing the progression of snow.

NOAA GFS, via tropical tidbits

5- to 10-inch totals

I’m already seeing snowfall totals over 5 inches in southwest Minnesota. This is dry snow with snow to water ratios around 16:1. That means high-quality stellar dendrites that can pile up quickly.

I think we’ll see widespread 5- to 10-inch totals from the North Shore through central and southern Minnesota by Wednesday night.

Bottom Line: Expect snowfall into the evening hours. Both rush hours will be slick. Most of us will see 5- to 10-inch snowfall totals by Wednesday night.

Milder temperatures 

At least temperatures will be milder as we head toward the weekend. Colder air invades again next week. I know.

NOAA, via Weather Bell

Weekend storm still on track

We logged 22.6 inches snow at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport in February before Wednesday’s storm. Thirty inches this month looks like a lock. That would be the snowiest February on record, and one of the top 10 snowiest months ever recorded at MSP.

The weekend system still looks likely to produce several more inches of snow. Track specifics still to be determined. A lead wave Friday brings a shot of snow.

The main low-pressure system arrives Saturday into Sunday.

Stay safe out there, and stay tuned.

  • Rob

    Paul, thanks for the less giddy, more straightforward summary about the latest snow clusterf¢¡k. There’s nothing delightful about these big snowfalls, and breaking snowfall records is not anything to gush about. The absence of exclamation points and exuberance in this morning’s Updraft is much appreciated.

    • Joel Fischer

      Au contraire! There is plenty that’s delightful about big snowfalls. Ask any farmer or gardener, photographer or skier, or someone who can see the beauty in it. Also, I drove to work this morning and had only to deal with the snow on the road, not the terrible Minnesota drivers. THAT was delightful!!!!!

      • Rob

        Glad your Prozac’s working. Have you tried using the sidewalks in the last few weeks?

        • Joel Fischer

          Yes, I have. I’ve also tried parking on the streets in Minneapolis. Having a bad attitude about it won’t change the fact that it’s there.

          • JamieHX

            Have you tried being disabled in this kind of weather? It is downright perilous. There is no joy.

          • Rob

            GTK you live at the corner of Unicorn Avenue and Rainbow Drive.

    • bilahn

      Oh now don’t be so negative. I know it causes a lot of headaches, but it is also a lot of fun. Move to Florida!

      • Jeffrey

        I would hazard a guess that you are someone who doesn’t have to park on the street and deal with the snow emergency declaration. Sorry, I disagree, nothing good about winter. This one feels like it is never going to end.

        • bilahn

          On the contrary I live in Uptown and it can be a nightmare, and I was so stuck on one occasion it took 3 brawny dudes to push me out.

          I still manage to enjoy this. I love all four seasons.

          I understand some people just hate winter period, and that’s OK – but I am not one of them despite the problems.

          The only weather I truly hate is high summer humidity.

          • Jeffrey

            I stand corrected. A snow emergency can restore your faith in humanity. I have always had someone come along and help me when I have been really stuck.
            Sure wish I could find a way to enjoy winter; my winter blues are getting worse every year.

          • bilahn

            Daylight is currently increasing 2-4 minutes a day.

        • Joel Fischer

          The thing is: We’re going to get the same amount of snow whether you find joy in it or are miserable about it.

        • Adam Conley

          Winter didn’t even start until mid January…

      • Rob

        A pessimist is merely an optimist in possession of the facts. But thanks for telling me how to feel.

        • Joel Fischer

          You shared an opinion, not facts.

          • Rob

            That’s your opinion.

        • Mike

          Boo this guy. Booooo.

  • Rita M

    7″ in Lindström already. I’d rather have all this snow now than in April like last year. Love the 4 seasons, will ski and snowshoe to my heart’s content while I can!

    • Rob

      This year will be noteworthy for being able to ski and snowshoe in May.

      • Joel Fischer

        We got 17 inches of snow on April 15th last year. The grass was green by May 1st.

    • Dave

      I’d rather have all the snow in April. It disappears much faster.

  • JWolf

    There is a fact in the comment thread. The winter blues will in fact go away and we’ll eventually be see Spring but rain, snow or sun, MN drivers are in fact, terrible.

    • Jenn Radtke

      Ha! Truth

  • Chris C

    I will never understand those that complain about the winter and live in MN. Winter by varying measures is 3-6 months because…it’s the North. Winter lasts month here for 10,000’s of years, well probably way longer. Isn’t there a saying about insanity, repeating events and expecting different outcomes. I grew up in NY, moved to MD in August. By Oct said NOPE ain’t going to do it, way to hot and humid, moved here where I found home for 25 years. You have the full power to create your own destiny. Use your power.