Icy start to an unsettled week

Much snow melted over the weekend. That was just the beginning of the problem across many areas.

The meltwater refroze into glare ice Sunday night as temperatures fell below freezing. Freezing drizzle and light freezing rain added more ice. The Monday morning commute was quite the icy mess with many crashes and spinouts.

In the Twin Cities, the high temperature for Monday was 33 degrees at the very beginning of the day. The temperature has fallen to 9 at 5 p.m.  Salt does not melt ice very effectively at single-digit temperatures.

Chilly night coming

Low temperatures for Tuesday morning are likely to range from the negative teens in northern Minnesota to around 5 above in Winona in the southeast. The Twin Cities should cool to around 1 above, and a bit chillier in the suburbs.

A wind chill advisory has been issued for Monday night into Tuesday morning across parts of northern Minnesota for wind chills as low as minus 30.

Wind chill advisories beginning Monday evening for northern Minnesota. National Weather Service

Wind chill advisories are continued well into Monday night for southwest and west-central Minnesota for wind chills as low as minus 25 to 30.

Wind chill advisories into Monday night. Winter weather advisories for Tuesday. National Weather Service

Snow for Tuesday

Forecast models have strengthened the weather disturbance headed our way for Tuesday. As shown above, a winter weather advisory for several inches of snow on Tuesday has been posted across central Minnesota from Willmar and Olivia east through the Twin Cities and Cambridge to Menominee and Rice Lake in Wisconsin. Accumulations near the centerline of the advisory could be around 4 to 6 inches. Some shifting of the area is possible, of course.

High temperatures are likely to remain in the negative single digits in northwestern Minnesota while readings could touch 20 degrees in the balmier southeast.

And more snow Wednesday-Thursday

A rather prolonged snowfall event from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday seems likely to drop several more inches of fluffy snow across a broad area of Minnesota and Wisconsin. An early estimate of amounts would be widespread 4 to 8 inches with the heavier amounts north of the Twin Cities.

A forecast of projected snowfalls from these two events looks like this:

Upcoming snow event forecasts. Twin Cities National Weather Service

Turning colder Friday

As usual, these storm systems will be followed by a Canadian cooldown. Friday and Saturday should be the coldest days before temperatures moderate on Sunday and Monday.

Very extended outlook

Long range models bring in colder air again next week. The 8-14 day temperature outlook calls for the likelihood of colder-than-normal temperatures February 12-18 from the Upper Midwest to the West Coast. Florida could be abnormally warm, as though they need that.

The 8-14 day temperature outlook for February 12-18 looks chilly for us and points west. NOAA Climate Prediction Center