Prolonged thaw now; rain and snow Sunday night and Monday
It's here.
Our long predicted January thaw has arrived. Temperatures soared Thursday afternoon on southerly winds and filtered sunshine. Several Minnesota cities saw temperatures in the 40s Thursday. This is not your grandfather's January weather map.
Thaw continues
Our mild Pacific air mass is here to stay through the weekend. Temperatures blew past forecast model guidance again Thursday. I still think the numbers below are conservative. We could see some 50-degree temps across southern Minnesota by Saturday afternoon.
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Rain and snow late Sunday
The next low-pressure system rolls in late Sunday and Monday. Temperatures look cold enough for snow north of the Twin Cities. Most model guidance suggests the rain-snow line will be close to the Twin Cities Sunday night and Monday. That likely means a rain-snow mix for the Twin Cities.
Here's the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Global Forecast System model version of events.
Colder air in late January?
Warmer than average temperatures look likely into mid-January. But you know we're not done with Arctic air this winter. There are some early indications the jet stream may change and deliver another shot of arctic air in late January or early February.
Stay tuned.