What we’re not telling you about next week’s possible snowstorm

Okay, that headline looks like clickbait.

But there really is a debate in the meteorological community about when to share raw model snowfall output with listeners and viewers several days in advance. Some meteorologists in this and other markets have shared snowfall totals a week in advance of possible snow events. And some are still scraping the egg off.

Next week's possible snow event is still on the forecast model radar. Let the expletives fly.

Weather data freely available 

Let's be honest. Anyone with any level of computer savvy can find forecast model snowfall projections. In the old days, all that data came into the weather center, and we decided what to put on TV. That level of weather information was not generally available to the general public.

There is a loose consensus among meteorologists not to broadcast raw model snowfall maps 4 or 5 days ahead of a storm. And if you follow winter storm forecasts you know that snowfall prediction can be dicey even 24 hours in advance of the first flakes. The National Weather Service has recently included ranges in snowfall forecasting.

Heavy snow potential growing next week

There are plenty of models that project snowfall totals of a foot (or more) across Minnesota next week. The reality is, the storm track, temperature profile, or dreaded "dry slot" can mess with snowfall totals up to go-time.

Here's what I think we can credibly say at this point 5 days before the snow likely flies.

• Overall travel conditions in the Upper Midwest look favorable through Christmas Day.

• Light snow Saturday in northern Minnesota should generally be less than 1-inch.

• A powerful low-pressure system is still likely in the Upper Midwest late Wednesday and Thursday.

• Most models favor a track that would bring heavy snow to some part of Minnesota.

• Rain is more likely in eastern Iowa and much of Wisconsin.

The models today 

It was almost predictable that the forecast models swerved right last night. They swerved back sharply left again Friday. Many models today lay out the heaviest snowfall bands from Mankato through the Twin Cities and across much of central Minnesota. That will probably change.

But there is great consensus for a major winter storm in Minnesota next week. This Canadian model is typical of the latest runs from the American and European models. This scenario would put heavy snow across much of Minnesota with a potential icy mix at times near the Twin Cities, with rain further south.

So the best actionable forecast information 5 days out is still that chances are growing for heavy snow in parts of Minnesota late Wednesday through Thursday. This could be the "big one" of this winter for some towns.

Stay tuned.