Saturday flakes at times; update on potential snowstorm late Wednesday and Thursday

Our first full day of astronomical winter will feel wintry, with periods of light snow or flurries in much of northern and central Minnesota.

The Twin Cities metro area will see pockets of light snow in the morning, with a flurry chance in the afternoon.'

Winds shift this evening, and moisture from Lake Superior will lead to enhanced snowfall amounts tonight and early Sunday in parts of northeastern Minnesota.

On to the details.

Weekend snow chances

Northern Minnesota has the best chance of some snow accumulations this weekend, with the highest snow totals to the northeast:

Winter weather advisories run from 6 p.m. this Saturday to 6 p.m. Sunday in Cook county and much of Lake county:

Details of the advisory:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Duluth MN

333 AM CST Sat Dec 22 2018

...SNOW FOR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...

.Low pressure will move into the region from the northwest today

through tonight and into Upper Michigan on Sunday. This will

spread snow into the region, but flow along Lake Superior will

gradually become southeasterly late this afternoon into tonight.

This will aid snow production with lake enhancement and lift along

the higher terrain of the North Shore. A storm total of 3 to 5

inches of snow is expected from today through Sunday with 2 to 4

inches falling tonight through Sunday.

MNZ012-021-222145-

/O.NEW.KDLH.WW.Y.0029.181223T0000Z-181224T0000Z/

Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Cook-

Including the cities of Isabella and Grand Marais

333 AM CST Sat Dec 22 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO

6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4

inches expected.

* WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake and Southern Cook Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in

either state.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening:

The newest run of the NAM forecast model shows a chance of light snow late Monday night and Christmas Day in about the southern half of Minnesota.

Snow depth

Some Minnesotans are hoping for snow. Central Minnesota and much of the Twin Cities metro area have little or no snow cover right now.

The latest Minnesota snow depth map from the Minnesota State Climatology Office shows 2-4 inches of snow cover across parts of far southern Minnesota and higher snow amounts in far northern Minnesota:

Wednesday night and Thursday snow potential

Here are the headlines:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows this potential precipitation pattern Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.

NOAA’s experimental FV3-GFS model shows a similar storm track and precipitation pattern:

The FV3-GFS track is a slightly more northerly track than the GFS track, which could give the metro area rain during part of the winter storm event.

Check for updates on this potential winter storm, especially if you have travel plans for Wednesday night, Thursday and early Friday!

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.