Update on Christmas travel; potential snowstorm Wednesday night into Friday
We'll see a few flakes at times this Sunday in central and southern Minnesota, but the northern third of Minnesota will have the best chance of accumulating snow.
There's a winter weather advisory until 6 p.m. this Sunday for Cook county and Lake county of northeastern Minnesota:
Details of the advisory:
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
310 AM CST Sun Dec 23 2018
MNZ012-020-021-232115-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0029.000000T0000Z-181224T0000Z/
Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Lake-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Isabella, Two Harbors, Silver Bay,
and Grand Marais
310 AM CST Sun Dec 23 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
* WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake, Southern Cook and Southern
Lake Counties.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.
The Duluth office of the NWS will have updates on the snow.
As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you will also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Temperature trends
Most of Minnesota will see Sunday afternoon highs in the 20s, but a few spots in the south could reach the lower 30s.
Highs in the 20s will also be common on Monday, with some teens in the far northwest:
Christmas Day highs will range from the teens northwest to the lower 30s in the south:
Our average high this time of year is 25 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.
Christmas travel
Monday looks like a quiet weather day, and we'll probably see a bit of sun at times.
We could see a few light snow showers in northern Minnesota and parts of southern Minnesota (including the Twin Cities) on Christmas day.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Monday morning through Christmas Day:
There shouldn't be any major travel problems in Minnesota Monday or Tuesday, but travel in Iowa and southern Wisconsin could be affected by some snow and patchy light freezing rain on Christmas Day.
Check forecast updates if you are planning to travel in those areas.
Update on potential snowstorm for Wednesday night into Friday
Forecast models continue to show a strong low pressure system spinning snow over much of the upper Midwest from Wednesday evening into early Friday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern Wednesday afternoon through Friday afternoon:
You can see that southeastern Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro area have rain or a rain/snow mix during a portion of the simulated radar loop. Areas that stay all snow would get the highest snow totals.
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.
NOAA’s experimental FV3-GFS model shows a similar storm track and precipitation pattern:
The atmospheric impulse that will spawn the snowstorm this week is still over the Pacific ocean, where there is limited data for the forecast models.
We'll have more data for the models in a couple of days, and a better idea on the storm track and snow amounts.
For now, we can say that the storm will probably deliver a swath of heavy snow to parts of the upper Midwest, including portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin:
Some locations could see double-digit snow totals from the storm.
Check forecast updates, especially if you have travel plans in Minnesota, Wisconsin, eastern South Dakota or northern Iowa Wednesday night, Thursday or Friday.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.