Good travel weather for Christmas; winter storm will bring heavy snow to much of Minnesota late Wednesday into early Friday

Merry Christmas!

The weather will cooperate with travel plans across Minnesota and Wisconsin today. There could be occasional snow flurries, but accumulating snow is not expected in most areas.

Meteorologists call it a white Christmas when there’s one inch or more of snow cover on Christmas morning. With only a trace of snow on the ground at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, this will not be considered a white Christmas in the Twin Cities. Of course, some Twin Cities metro locations with north-facing slopes or shaded lawns do have one inch or more of snow cover.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has posted info on our historical Christmas morning snow cover in the Twin Cities, as well as the long-term chances of a white Christmas for dozens of locations around Minnesota.

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Temperature trends

Highs today will range from the teens in the far northwest to lower 30s in southeastern Minnesota.

rt1225h5

Similar highs are expected on Wednesday:

rt1226h

Our average high this time of year is 25 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 30s on Thursday, and falling temps are expected on Friday, possibly reaching the teens Friday afternoon.

Winter storm update 

Forecast models indicate that heavy snow is most likely from southwestern and central Minnesota through northern Minnesota from late Wednesday through early Friday.

Here's a summary of the projected snow totals and a map of counties that are in a winter storm watch:

rt1225hvysnow
NWS Twin Cities

Here are details on the central Minnesota portion of the winter storm watch:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

329 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...MAJOR WINTER STORM POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY

NIGHT...

.A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for areas along and west of a

line from Redwood Falls to Cambridge Wednesday evening through

Thursday night.

Snow will begin advancing into western Minnesota Wednesday

afternoon with intensity increasing by evening. Snow, heavy at

times, will continue through Thursday before intensity tapers off

Thursday evening. Occasional light snow and freezing drizzle are

possible Thursday night. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 13

inches are possible across much of western and portions of central

Minnesota, mostly northwest of a line from Redwood Falls to Mora.

Along and east of that line, warm air aloft will surge northward

late Wednesday night and Thursday which will turn the snow to rain

until Thursday evening. There is still some question as to where

that sharp cut off from snow to rain will set up, so the Winter

Storm Watch includes a few counties along that line.

MNZ041>045-047>050-054>058-064-251730-

/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0012.181227T0000Z-181228T1200Z/

Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-

Benton-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-

Yellow Medicine-

Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls,

Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Foley, Madison,

Benson, Montevideo, Willmar, Litchfield, and Granite Falls

329 AM CST Tue Dec 25 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday with

light snow and freezing drizzle possible Thursday night. Total

snow accumulations of 8 to 13 inches and ice accumulations of

around one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high

as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central and west central

Minnesota.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through late Thursday night.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. Patchy

blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The

hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening

commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant

snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue

to monitor the latest forecasts.

The winter storm watch does not include the 7-county Twin Cities metro area. The metro area could see some snow Wednesday afternoon, with snow likely Wednesday evening. The snow is expected to change to rain in the metro area overnight Wednesday night, and rain is likely on Thursday.  Rain Thursday evening changes to snow at some point Thursday night, with snow into early Friday. Snow accumulations in the metro area will depend how long our precipitation stays in the form of snow, but general snow totals in the 2 to 5 inch range are expected in the metro area, with some higher totals possible on the northwest side of the metro. There could be some freezing rain at times Thursday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern Wednesday through Friday morning:

rt1225rad2
NOAA NAM simulated radar from Wednesday through Friday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow and rain.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you will also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.