Christmas travel update; winter storm potential Thursday into Friday
It's a white Christmas if one inch or more of snow is on the ground on Christmas morning.
As of now, there is only a trace of snow on the ground at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.
It's unlikely that we'll get an inch of snow at MSP Airport by Christmas, but the metro area could see a few flurries Sunday and some light snow showers on Christmas Day.
The Minnesota State Climatology Office has posted info on our historical Christmas morning snow cover in the Twin Cities, as well as the long-term chances of a white Christmas for dozens of locations around Minnesota.
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Snow chances
Much of northern Minnesota will have periods of snow Saturday evening through Saturday night and into Sunday.
The heaviest snow will be in parts of Cook county and Lake county of northeastern Minnesota, where there is a winter weather advisory from Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon:
Details of the advisory in northeastern Minnesota:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Duluth MN
325 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018
...SNOW FOR THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...
.Low pressure will move into the region from the northwest
tonight and Sunday. The snow will intensify tonight for the tip
of the Arrowhead as winds increase out of the southeast, aiding
snow production with lake enhancement and lift along the higher
terrain of the North Shore. Elsewhere, snow will continue across
the region, then slowly end from northwest to southeast Sunday
afternoon. 3 to 5 inches of snowfall is expected tonight through
Sunday.
MNZ012-021-230930-
/O.CON.KDLH.WW.Y.0029.181223T0000Z-181224T0000Z/
Northern Cook and Lake-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Isabella and Grand Marais
325 PM CST Sat Dec 22 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
SUNDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5
inches expected.
* WHERE...Northern Cook and Lake and Southern Cook Counties.
* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Sunday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads
and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.
The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at
511mn.org, and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 511 in
either state.
The Duluth office of the NWS will have updates on the snow.
As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you will also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
The Twin Cities metro area could see occasional flurries Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night and Sunday morning. patchy freezing drizzle is also possible.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Saturday evening through Sunday:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow.
Northern Minnesota, as well as the Twin Cities metro area and southeastern Minnesota, could see some light snow showers on Christmas Day.
Caution about thin ice
Our recent warm weather has degraded ice conditions in parts of Minnesota.
This timely reminder from the DNR:
Temperature trends
Sunday highs will be mainly in the 20s across Minnesota, with some lower 30s in parts of the south:
Monday highs will be mainly in the 20s:
Highs in the lower 30s return to the south on Christmas Day:
Our average high this time of year is 25 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.
Wednesday night and Thursday snowstorm potential
Forecast models continue to show a strong low pressure system spinning snow over the upper Midwest Wednesday night into early Friday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System model shows this potential precipitation pattern Wednesday through Friday:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.
NOAA’s experimental FV3-GFS model shows a similar storm track and precipitation pattern:
The storm track is uncertain at this point, but a swath of heavy snow is possible in parts of the upper Midwest, including portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin:
Check forecast updates, especially if you have travel plans in Minnesota, Wisconsin or northern Iowa Wednesday night, Thursday or Friday.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.