Christmas travel looks fine; Update on the late Wednesday through early Friday winter storm

There's only a trace of snow on the ground right now at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport.

Meteorologists call it a white Christmas when there's one inch or more of snow cover on Christmas morning.

We could see a few flurries late Monday night and on Christmas Day in the Twin Cities metro area, but that won't be enough to make this a white Christmas. Of course, some Twin Cities metro locations with north-facing slopes or shaded lawns still have one inch or more of snow cover.

The last time that the Twin Cities didn't have a white Christmas was in 2015.

The Minnesota State Climatology Office has posted info on our historical Christmas morning snow cover in the Twin Cities, as well as the long-term chances of a white Christmas for dozens of locations around Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s snow depth map shows that portions of northern Minnesota and parts of far southern Minnesota have snow cover as we approach Christmas:

The deepest snow depths are over northeastern Minnesota.

Travel weather for Christmas

We could have some occasional light snow showers in northern Minnesota this Monday night and Christmas Day. Central and southern Minnesota have a chance of occasional Christmas Day flurries.

NOAA's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern Monday night through Christmas Day:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow.

Temperature trends

Monday highs are expected to range from the upper teens in far northwestern Minnesota to around 30 in the far south.

A similar high temp pattern is on tap for Christmas Day:

A few spots in the metro area could top 30 on Christmas Day.

Our average Twin Cities high is 25 degrees this time of year.

We could see metro highs in the mid 30s Wednesday, followed by mid to upper 30s on Thursday.

Winter storm update

A powerful low pressure system is expected to bring heavy snow to parts of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin late Wednesday into early Friday.

The heavy snow area will depend on the storm track and temperature profile of the storm circulation. Southwestern and west-central Minnesota through northeastern Minnesota seem to be the prime areas for heavy snow from this storm.

The impulse that will generate the winter storm is expected to arrive on the West Coast Monday night.  Once it is over land, we'll have a lot more surface and upper air data for the computer models, and greater certainty about the location of the heaviest snow.

At this point it looks like the Twin Cities metro area will see some snow or a mix of rain and snow late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, with rain/sleet/light freezing rain and snow all possible Wednesday night. We could see all rain for a while on Thursday, followed by a change to all snow late Thursday into early Friday.

A more southerly track gives the metro area more hours of snow, a more northerly storm track gives us more hours of rain or a mix.

NOAA's Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Wednesday morning through Friday:

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.

NOAA’s experimental FV3-GFS model shows a slightly more northerly storm track:

The FV3-GFS is expected to replace NOAA's current GFS model at some point in 2019.

This winter storm summary was in the Monday morning situation report from the Twin Cities office of the NWS:

It'll be interesting to see how today's model runs handle the winter storm.

Check forecast updates, especially if you have travel plans in Minnesota, Wisconsin, eastern South Dakota or northwestern Iowa Wednesday night, Thursday or Friday.