Breezy Thursday with a sprinkle/flake chance; Christmas travel and Wednesday snowstorm update
Our Thursday will be cooler than the past few days, but we'll still be a bit warmer than normal.
The high temp at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 37 degrees early this Thursday morning, and we're expecting slowly falling temps as we go through the afternoon. Our average high this time of year is 26 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area.
It'll be a breezy day, and winds could gust over 20 mph at times. Western Minnesota could have some wind gusts to around 40 mph.
Parts of eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see periods of drizzle, light rain showers and light snow showers this morning and early this afternoon.
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As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you will also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.
Temperature trends
Friday highs are expected to be in the 20s over northern Minnesota, with lower 30s south:
A similar high temperature pattern is expected for Saturday:
The southwest could reach the mid 30s.
On Sunday, temps top out in the 20s in northern and central Minnesota, with a few lower 30s in the south:
Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the upper 20s to around 30 on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Weekend snow chances
Northern and central Minnesota could see some periods of light snow late Friday night into Saturday and Sunday:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential snow pattern from late Friday night through Sunday afternoon:
The NAM model shows a chance of light snow in the Twin Cities metro area Saturday afternoon/evening.
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of snow.
Christmas travel
No major travel problems are expected in Minnesota or western Wisconsin on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
It could be a different story on the day after Christmas.
Forecast models continue to show a strong low-pressure system spinning moisture over the upper Midwest next Wednesday and Thursday.
NOAA's Global Forecast System model shows the potential precipitation pattern next Wednesday through Thursday night:
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the precipitation rate (mm per hour), not to the total amount of rain or snow.
The GFS has the Twin Cities metro area near the rain/snow line, so we may have rain for part of the event and snow at other times. In the GFS scenario, the heaviest snow would fall from southwestern Minnesota through parts of central Minnesota into the northeast.
The Canadian (GEM) forecast model keeps the Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota in rain for much of the event:
Northern Minnesota would get the heaviest snow under the GEM model scenario, with very minor accumulations in the Twin Cities metro area and southern Minnesota.
As we get closer to Wednesday, the models will tend to converge on the snowstorm path.
Check for updates on this potential winter storm, especially if you have travel plans for next Wednesday and Thursday!
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.