2″ to 5″ of snow for metro area mid-afternoon into tonight, heavier snow southern Minn.

Meteorological winter (December through February) begins today.

Right on cue, a snowstorm is moving into southern Minnesota this afternoon.

The big picture

Snow will spread from southern Minnesota into the Twin Cities metro area as we go through Saturday afternoon. Snow continues this evening and tonight in much of the southern half of Minnesota into western Wisconsin. A bit of lingering light snow is possible Sunday morning.

Create a More Connected Minnesota

MPR News is your trusted resource for the news you need. With your support, MPR News brings accessible, courageous journalism and authentic conversation to everyone - free of paywalls and barriers. Your gift makes a difference.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from this Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon:

rt1201rad2
NOAA NAM simulated radar from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits

The NAM model keeps the highest snow totals over southern Minnesota:

rt1201rad3
NOAA NAM snow accumulation from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, via tropicaltidbits

A closer look 

The Twin Cities metro area will ride the northern edge of the heaviest snow later this Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.  The far southern part of the metro could end up with 4 to 6 inches of snow, while the far north metro (northern Anoka county) only sees an inch or two. It looks like Minneapolis and St. Paul will be in the mid-range of metro snowfall, with snow beginning by around mid-afternoon, and 2 to 4 inch totals possible by later tonight.

Far higher snow amounts are expected in southern Minnesota. Here’s the NWS summary of expected snowfall, plus a timeline:

Winter storm warnings are in effect across most of southern Minnesota from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning:

rt1201wrn4
NWS Twin Cities

Winter weather advisories include most the Twin Cities metro area (except Anoka county) from this afternoon through Sunday morning:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN

945 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

...Heavy snow with strong winds to impact southern Minnesota into

west central Wisconsin today into Sunday morning...

.Accumulating snow will move into southern Minnesota by this

afternoon and lift north and east to central Minnesota and west

central Wisconsin during the afternoon. Snow will be heaviest

during the afternoon and early evening, but will continue into

Sunday morning. Northeast winds gusting to 40 mph will also lead

to blowing and drifting snow.

The winter Storm Warning remains in effect for locations along

and south of a Madelia to Red Wing line, where 5 to 10 inches of

snow are expected.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for locations along

and south of a Granite Falls, to Twin Cities, to Bloomer

Wisconsin line, where snowfall accumulations of 2 to 5 inches are

expected.

MNZ060-062-063-068>070-WIZ023>028-020000-

/O.CON.KMPX.WW.Y.0023.181201T1800Z-181202T1800Z/

Hennepin-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-St. Croix-Pierce-

Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-

Including the cities of Minneapolis, St Paul, Stillwater, Chaska,

Shakopee, Hastings, Hudson, River Falls, Prescott, Menomonie,

Durand, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire

945 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST

SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5

inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of west central Wisconsin and east central

Minnesota.

* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Patchy

blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will

cause primarily travel difficulties. Expect snow covered roads

and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

The snow may not begin in the northern half of the metro area until about mid-afternoon.

Here are details of the winter storm warning that includes Mankato and points to the east and south of Mankato:

MNZ077-078-082>085-091>093-020000-

/O.CON.KMPX.WS.W.0010.181201T1800Z-181202T1800Z/

Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-

Freeborn-

Including the cities of Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato,

Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea

945 AM CST Sat Dec 1 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 9

inches expected. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Rice, Blue Earth, Waseca, Steele and Freeborn Counties.

* WHEN...From noon today to noon CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will become difficult this

afternoon and tonight. Patchy blowing snow could significantly

reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather

conditions will make travel very hazardous or impossible. If you

must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your

vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Minnesota can be found at

511mn.org and for Wisconsin at 511wi.gov, or by calling 5 1 1 in

either state.

You can check details of other warnings and advisories from the NWS offices in the Twin CitiesLa Crosse, WI and Sioux Falls, SD.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you will also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Updated road conditions will be posted by the Minnesota and Wisconsin Transportation Departments.

Temperature trends

Most of southern and central Minnesota will see highs in the 30s Saturday afternoon, with some 20s in the north.

Sunday will feature a lot of highs in the 20s, with some lower 30s from the Twin Cities metro area into southeastern Minnesota:

rt1202h3

The Twin Cities metro area will have chilly high temps in the 20s next Monday through Thursday.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.