Snow Saturday for southern Minn. and metro; highest totals south

The big snowstorms have been missing the Twin Cities metro area this autumn. The November snow total at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport is only 4 inches.

Our 30-year average snowfall total for November is 9.3 inches in the Twin Cities metro area. It looks like we will see some snow as we begin December.

Weekend snow potential

A wintry mix of rain/light freezing rain and snow is expected to move into southwestern Minnesota overnight Friday night. The wintry mix spreads northeastward and changes over to mostly snow as we go through Saturday.

Snow continues in roughly the southern half of Minnesota Saturday evening and overnight Saturday night.

The snow tapers off from north to south as we go through Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential precipitation pattern from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain, ice and snow.

Southern Minnesota should see the most snow from this winter storm.

Here’s the National Weather Service forecast of weekend snow totals:

National Weather Service Twin Cities

Once again, the Twin Cities metro area rides the northern edge of the snow.

Snow will probably begin in the Twin Cities metro area sometime Saturday afternoon and continue into Saturday night. Periods of lighter snow are expected Sunday morning.

The far south metro area has the best chance of seeing 4 inches of snow, while the far north metro may see only an inch or so.

Check forecast updates, since changes in the storm track could shift higher snow amounts northward or southward.

Here’s a summary of weekend watches and warnings:

NWS Twin Cities

The winter storm warning for Rock County in southwestern Minnesota starts at 11 p.m. Friday and runs to 6 p.m. Sunday:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
505 AM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

…Significant Winter Storm Expected This Weekend…

IAZ001-012-MNZ098-SDZ057>062-066-067-301915-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0012.181201T0000Z-181203T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KFSD.WS.W.0008.181201T0500Z-181203T0000Z/
Lyon IA-Sioux-Rock-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-McCook-Minnehaha-
Turner-Lincoln SD-
505 AM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

…WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY…

* WHAT…Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of around
two tenths of an inch expected. Winds gusting as high as 35
mph.

* WHERE…Portions of south central and southeast South Dakota,
northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota.

* WHEN…From 11 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult if not
impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

The winter storm watch for much of the remainder of southern Minnesota runs from Saturday morning through Sunday morning:

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
345 AM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

…Accumulating Snow and a Wintry Mix Expected this Weekend for
Southern Minnesota…

.Accumulating snow, with possibly some freezing rain at the
onset, is expected to move into southern Minnesota Saturday
morning, transitioning to mainly all snow during the afternoon.
The snow will likely continue into Sunday morning.

Snow accumulations up to 7 inches are possible along and south of
a Marshall, to St. Peter, to Red Wing line, with the bulk falling
Saturday afternoon and evening. Icing under 1/10 of an inch is
also possible.

MNZ073>078-082>085-091>093-301745-
/O.CON.KMPX.WS.A.0011.181201T1200Z-181202T1800Z/
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Redwood Falls, New Ulm, St Peter,
Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James, Mankato, Waseca,
Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea
345 AM CST Fri Nov 30 2018

…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING…

* WHAT…A mix of freezing rain and snow Saturday morning becoming
all snow Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Total snow
accumulations up to 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one
tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph.

* WHERE…Along and south of a line from Marshall to Saint Peter
to Red Wing.

* WHEN…From Saturday morning through Sunday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Travel could be very difficult, especially
along Interstate 90 and along Interstate 35 between the Twin
Cities and the Iowa border. Patchy blowing snow could
significantly reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts.

At this point, the Twin Cities metro area is not in any type of watch or warning this weekend.

As always, updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you will also see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Temperature trends

Minnesota highs this Friday will be mainly in the 30s, some upper 20s possible up near the Canadian border.

A similar pattern is expected for Saturday high temps:

On Sunday, some 20s spread into central and western Minnesota:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be in the lower 20s Monday through Wednesday of next week.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.