Plowable snow up north; 12- to 16-foot waves on Lake Superior

Minnesota’s weather maps look like a twisted game of weather poker. There are multiple watches, warnings and advisories on the map today.

Twin Cities NWS

Lakeshore flood watch for Lake Superior

As our low-pressure system winds up tonight, strong northeast winds gusting to over 40 mph will push water toward Duluth. Waves will build to 12 to 16 feet, and lakeshore damage may occur in places like Canal Park.

A lakeshore flood watch is in effect tonight and Wednesday.

Lakeshore Hazard Message
National Weather Service Duluth MN
337 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

…Potential Lakeshore Flooding from Large Waves Tonight and
Wednesday…

.Strong northeast winds will develop over western Lake Superior
tonight into Wednesday afternoon with the potential for powerful
storm- force wind gusts to 50 knots. These winds will cause large
waves over western Lake Superior that will crash on the shoreline
with waves of 12 to 16 feet. The waves could be big enough to
cause damage to the shoreline. The water level of Lake Superior is
quite high, making the shoreline more prone to getting damage
from waves.

MNZ020-037-WIZ001>003-100245-
/O.CON.KDLH.LS.A.0002.181010T0300Z-181010T2100Z/
Southern Lake/North Shore-Carlton/South St. Louis-Douglas-
Bayfield-Ashland-
337 AM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

…LAKESHORE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON…

* LAKE SHORE FLOODING…Areas of the North and South Shores of
western Lake Superior, including Two Harbors, the Duluth and
Superior areas, and Ashland.

* TIMING…This evening through Wednesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS…Damage is possible to shoreline infrastructure, such
as to harbors, beaches, lake walkways, and roads near the
shore.

Seiches and storms surges

The Great Lakes are prone to a phenomenon called a seiche. High winds push water and cause it to pile up on the leeward shore of big lakes like Lake Superior. There are also meteotsunamis and storm surges on the Great Lakes.

Michigan State University.

Here’s the result of a 2001 seiche in Duluth.

Courtesy of Minnesota Sea Grant-NOAA-Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

I expect winds to build quickly tonight and peak Wednesday morning. We will see some interesting scenes from Lake Superior tomorrow.

Flood watch shifts east

The core of the heaviest rain zone with tonight’s inbound storm center is shifting slightly east. It now looks like the heaviest 2- to 4-inch rainfall totals will favor Wisconsin. The heaviest rains will arrive this afternoon through tonight.

Snow up north

It will be cold enough tonight and Wednesday for plowable snow from the Red River Valley into northern Minnesota. Most models suggest anywhere from 2 to 6 inches from Fargo, N.D., to the Iron Range and Ely. We could see some 6-inch plus totals from Thief River Falls to Baudette.

Friday morning frost; milder next week

Frost is looking more likely Thursday or Friday morning in the Twin Cities. Low temperatures in the upper 20s in the suburbs to near 32 degrees in the inner metro core look likely. Temperatures moderate next week; the big question is how much.

NOAA via Weather Bell.

Hurricane Michael takes aim

Hurricane Michael is gaining strength and making a beeline toward  Florida’s Gulf Coast.

National Hurricane Center

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

…MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO…
…LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…24.5N 86.1W
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI…590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…100 MPH…155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…968 MB…28.58 INCHES

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL…8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL…6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL…6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL…4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL…2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.