Sunday’s surprise snow attack got our attention. At least it melted quickly.
Most locations saw around an inch of snow in southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin this morning, but the official totals are less because some of it melted before the observation time #mnwx #wiwx pic.twitter.com/55h8yqGNuJ
— NWS Twin Cities (@NWSTwinCities) October 14, 2018
Rumors of more sunshine this week are true. Chilly high pressure builds in over Minnesota today. But mid-October sun is enough to warm the lower atmosphere into the 40s across southern Minnesota. Temperatures respond as the week moves on.
Highs in the 60s across southern Minnesota look likely by Thursday. The average high and low in the Twin Cities this week are 58 and 39.
Milder again late next week?
The longer range upper air pattern over North America suggests milder than average weather again late next week into the weekend of October 27-28.
El Nino kicking in
Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST’s) are approaching the threshold for an El Nino event this winter. NOAA’s El Nino watch continues, with a 70 to 75-percent chance of an El Nino event this winter.
The odds still favor a milder than average winter overall in Minnesota. The seasonal outlook heading into winter strongly favors warmer than average temperatures across the Upper Midwest.
Minnesota still has cold and snowy bouts in El Nino winters. It just tends to average out warmer than average overall. This may be one of those winters where we see occasional bare ground in winter and sketchy lake ice again.