Sunnier and milder this week; 60s likely by Thursday

Sunday’s surprise snow attack got our attention. At least it melted quickly.

Sunny rumors

Rumors of more sunshine this week are true. Chilly high pressure builds in over Minnesota today. But mid-October sun is enough to warm the lower atmosphere into the 40s across southern Minnesota. Temperatures respond as the week moves on.

Twin Cities NWS.

Highs in the 60s across southern Minnesota look likely by Thursday. The average high and low in the Twin Cities this week are 58 and 39.

NOAA via Weather Bell.

Milder again late next week?

The longer range upper air pattern over North America suggests milder than average weather again late next week into the weekend of October 27-28.

NOAA

El Nino kicking in

Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST’s) are approaching the threshold for an El Nino event this winter. NOAA’s El Nino watch continues, with a 70 to 75-percent chance of an El Nino event this winter.

NOAA

The odds still favor a milder than average winter overall in Minnesota. The seasonal outlook heading into winter strongly favors warmer than average temperatures across the Upper Midwest.

Temperatures outlook November through January via NOAA.

Minnesota still has cold and snowy bouts in El Nino winters. It just tends to average out warmer than average overall. This may be one of those winters where we see occasional bare ground in winter and sketchy lake ice again.

Stay tuned.