Sun peeks out Tuesday afternoon; watching Election Day forecast

This time of year the weather maps can change quickly. Storms seemingly spin-up out of nowhere.

A few models, including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, are hinting at a possible rain-sleet-snow mix on Election Day somewhere in the Upper Midwest.

We’ll see. It’s still a week out.

In the shorter term, our gray Minnesota morning gives way to sunnier peeks Tuesday afternoon. Our weather still looks favorable for trick-or-treaters on Halloween night.

Cool October

Temperatures are running 3.5 degrees colder than average this month in the Twin Cities. October is the first colder-than-average month in most of Minnesota since April.

It’s been wetter than average in many places, but most of the significant rain fell in the first nine days of October. Many farm fields were able to dry out this month.

Here’s an update from Monday’s Minnesota Crop Report.

Good harvest progress was made early in the week ending October 28, 2018, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Rain and damp weather limited field activity late in the week.

There were 4.9 days suitable for fieldwork. Field activities for the week included harvesting corn, soybeans, potatoes, sunflowers and sugarbeets. Some reports of manure application, fall tillage and corn stalk chopping and baling were also
received.

Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 0 percent very short, 1 percent short, 72 percent adequate and 27 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 1 percent very short, 5 percent short, 68 percent adequate and 26 percent surplus.

Corn harvested for grain was 58 percent complete, one week ahead of last year but equal to the 5-year average.Corn moisture content of grain at harvest averaged 19 percent, down 1 percentage point from last week. Eightyseven percent of the soybean crop was harvested, 4 days behind last year and one week behind average.

U.S. Department of Agriculture

Halloween weather

I’m forecasting mainly clear skies, light winds, and temperatures in the 40s Wednesday evening around 7 pm. Here’s a look at historical Halloween weather in these parts.

Slow slide

Temperatures gradually cool in the next week. Highs in the 40s look common next week.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a via Weather Bell

Election Day storm potential?

A few models hint at the possibility of a storm somewhere in the Upper Midwest next Tuesday. It’s still too early to be confident. The European Centre model suggests a rain-sleet-snow mix next Tuesday in the Twin Cities.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model forecast for the Twin Cities next Tuesday and Wednesday, via Norwegian Met Institute

We’ll see. Stay tuned.