Hurricane Willa will slam Mexico; whispers of a wet or white Halloween?

Welcome to late October in Minnesota. The weather maps here this week look fairly seasonal. We enjoy plenty of sun and highs in the 50s Monday. Our sunny streak lasts into Wednesday. Then changes bring clouds and rain chances Thursday and Friday.

The longer range maps look interesting. Some models are spinning up an impressive low-pressure storm in the days surrounding Halloween. It’s still too early for reasonable confidence about potential precipitation type or timing. But it’s got my attention.

It’s that time of year in Minnesota.

Weekend fall color in the southwest Twin Cities. Paul Huttner | MPR News

Past peak

Fall color is officially now at or past peak in the Twin Cities and most of Minnesota. There are still some stunning of sugar maples around the Twin Cities. The tree in my yard (pictured above) has shed nearly all its leaves as of Monday morning.

Here’s the latest fall color update from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.

Minnesota DNR

Nice start to the week

A cool front slides gradually south Monday, and gusty winds kick in during the afternoon. We’ll enjoy plenty of sunshine Monday and Tuesday.

Seasonal temperatures

The average high in the Twin Cities this week falls to 53 degrees by Saturday. Monday will be the mildest day. Expect a pleasantly cool week.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, via Weather Bell

Halloween week storm?

Many forecast models are spinning up some kind of a storm next week. It’s too early to be confident about the track or precip type. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Forecast System suggests a chilly rain to snow scenario across Minnesota and the Dakotas in the days surrounding Halloween. Don’t bet the farm. Yet.

NOAA GFS model next Tuesday to Thursday, via tropical tidbits

Hurricane Willa will devastate Mexico

Here we go again. Hurricane Willa rapidly intensified over warm water during the weekend.

The storm is pushing Cat 5 with 155 mph winds. It’s likely to make landfall between Mazatlan and Puerto Vallarta late Tuesday into Wednesday. The devastation in Mexico will likely match Hurricane Michael. The system will bring more rain to already flooded Texas.

National Hurricane Center

Willa will race up the east coast next weekend. National Weather Service offices as far as Boston are paying attention.