Breezy and cold; temps rebound by Saturday; Lake Superior waves

It was nice to see this Thursday morning report from Duluth from MPR News reporter Dan Kraker:

It was a much wilder scene in Duluth on Wednesday. MPR News editor Andrew Krueger witnessed the huge 12- to 16-foot waves:

Additional Lake Superior wave video was posted by MPR yesterday.

Cleanup will be needed:

This was the scene on Brighton Beach road Thursday morning:

Snow reports

Much of northern Minnesota saw snow Wednesday and Wednesday night, but it will be tapering off to light snow showers as we go through Thursday.

Minnesota snow reports include 5 inches in Cook and 2.4 inches in Grand Rapids. Roseau and Warroad reported between 4 and 5 inches as of 6 p.m. Wednesday, and it’ll be interesting to see their updated snow totals today.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration generates a snowfall map that is updated as new totals arrive:

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

You can hover over data points on their web page to get the exact location and time of the snow measurements.  If you’re looking at their map later Thursday, you might want to click the “last 48 hours” tab at the top so that you don’t miss Wednesday’s reports.

You can check Minnesota road conditions if you plan on driving in northern Minnesota.

By the way, a trace of snow was reported early this morning at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport:

The Sept. 15 flurries mentioned in the tweet occurred in 1916.

Temperature trends

Our average high temp in the Twin Cities metro area is 61 degrees this time of year.

We might squeak out a 40 degrees high temp this afternoon, with 30s across most of Minnesota.

Lows will drop below freezing statewide Thursday night into early Friday:

Highs Friday will be mainly in the 30s north, with 40s central and south:

On Saturday, we’ll see some 50s south, with 40s in the north:

Twin Cities metro are highs are expected to reach the lower 50s on Saturday, but only around 41 on Sunday.

Metro area highs are projected to be around 42 on Monday, followed by 50 Tuesday and 54 on Wednesday. We could hit 60 next Thursday. That would feel nice!

Rain and snow chances

Northern Minnesota will see some lingering light snow showers into Thursday afternoon.

Friday looks dry.

Northern Minnesota could see rain showers at times on Saturday, and a mix of rain showers and snow showers at times on Sunday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern this weekend:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Saturday morning through Sunday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain or snow.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and you can see updated weather info on the MPR News live weather blog.

Fall colors

If you’re planning some leaf-peeping in Minnesota, you’ll be interested in the latest fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources:

Minnesota DNR

Keep in mind that all deciduous trees are included in the fall color report, not just maples.

Wisconsin fall color report is also available.

Tropical storm Michael

Hurricane Michael has weakened to tropical storm strength, and is centered over South Carolina Thursday morning.

Here’s Michael’s projected path, from the National Hurricane Center:

NWS National Hurricane Center

Unfortunately, Michael will bring heavy rains to portions of the Carolinas and Virginia over the next 24 hours:

NWS/NOAA Thursday and Thursday night rainfall potential

Those areas received flooding rains from Hurricane Florence in September.

Here’s the Thursday morning tropical storm update from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018

…CENTER OF MICHAEL MOVING OVER SOUTH CAROLINA…
…TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA…

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…34.1N 81.8W
ABOUT 40 MI…65 KM WNW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for…
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Altamaha Sound Georgia to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 81.8 West. Michael is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through
tonight.  A turn toward the east-northeast and an even faster
forward speed are expected on Friday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Michael will continue to move across central South
Carolina this morning, then move across portions of central and
eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia this afternoon and
this evening, and move into the Atlantic Ocean by late tonight or
early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, with the strongest
winds primarily spreading northward along the coast of the
Carolinas. Michael is forecast to intensify as it becomes a post-
tropical low over the Atlantic late tonight or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
mainly over water to the southeast of the center. A coastal marine
observing site at Folly Island, South Carolina recently reported a
sustained wind of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was recently observed in Charleston,
South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations
is 986 mb (29.12 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide…

Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet
to Duck…2-4 ft

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of
eastern and southeastern Georgia and South Carolina.  These
conditions will spread northward across central and eastern portions
of North Carolina today.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of
southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the
Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late tonight or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 7 inches from eastern Georgia to the southern Mid-Atlantic
states and 1 to 3 inches over the northern Mid-Atlantic states and
coastal southern New England. Isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches
are possible in North Carolina and Virginia. This rainfall could
lead to life-threatening flash floods.

TORNADOES:  Isolated tornadoes are possible today over portions of
eastern South Carolina, eastern and central North Carolina, and
southeast Virginia.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through this morning.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.