Steamy again on Sunday; rain at times this coming week

The high temperature at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport was 92 degrees on Saturday.

It wasn’t close to our Twin Cities record high of 98 degrees for September 15, but was 20 degrees warmer than our average high temp for this time of year.

The dew point hit at least 72 degrees at MSP airport on Saturday, which tied the Twin Cities record high dew point for the date.

Our Twin Cities heat index topped out at 96 degrees, but there were some higher ones elsewhere in Minnesota:

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
619 PM CDT Sat Sep 15 2018

…MAX HEAT INDICES FOR SEPTEMBER 15TH 2018…

Location Temp
Madison AP 101 F
Marietta 5SSW 100 F
Canby AP 100 F
Clara City 2WSW 100 F
Clearwater 1SE 100 F
Granite Falls AP 100 F
Sauk Centre 2SE 100 F
Princeton AP 99 F
Morton 99 F
New Germany 1NW 99 F
Cambridge AP 99 F
Alexandria AP 99 F
Foley 6WSW 99 F
Lakeville AP 99 F
Litchfield AP 99 F
Skyline 98 F
Winthrop 2W 98 F
Rice 1NNW 98 F
Paynesville AP 98 F
Olivia AP 98 F
Starbuck 8SSW 98 F
Morris AP 98 F
Glenwood AP 98 F
Silver Lake 3E 98 F
Hutchinson AP 98 F
Maple Lake AP 98 F
Santiago 3E 98 F
Long Prairie AP 98 F
Benson AP 97 F
Ladysmith 2SW 97 F
Carver 3S 97 F
Augusta 1NW 97 F
Blaine AP 97 F
St. Paul 1NNE 97 F
Little Falls 2SSE 97 F
Milaca 8N 97 F
Henderson 4ENE 97 F
Litchfield 3S 97 F
Wyoming 6WSW 97 F
Belgrade 3ESE 97 F
Hanley Falls 97 F
Mayer 1NE 97 F
Lake Elmo AP 97 F
Redwood Falls AP 96 F
Eden Prairie AP 96 F
Faribault AP 96 F
Alexandria 2SSE 96 F
Sauk Centre AP 96 F
Madelia 3ENE 96 F
St. Cloud AP 96 F
Glencoe AP 96 F
Willmar AP 96 F
St. James AP 96 F
Crystal AP 96 F
New Prague 2W 96 F
Little Falls AP 96 F
Appleton AP 96 F
Menomonie AP 96 F
Minneapolis-St. Paul AP 96 F
Osceola AP 96 F
Mora 1ENE 96 F
Chetek AP 95 F
Onamia 6SE 95 F
South St. Paul 1WSW 95 F
Ellendale 5NNE 95 F
Stanton AP 95 F
St. Paul Dwtn AP 95 F
Cannon Falls 7SSE 95 F
Montevideo AP 95 F
Blue Earth 2NW 95 F
Red Wing AP 95 F
Owatonna AP 95 F
South St. Paul AP 94 F
Rush City AP 94 F
Mankato AP 94 F
Red Wing 4W 94 F
Buffalo AP 94 F
Harding 3WNW 94 F
Rice Lake AP 93 F
Tony AP 93 F
Waseca AP 93 F
Mora AP 93 F
New Ulm AP 93 F
Fairmont AP 93 F
Morristown 93 F
Eau Claire AP 92 F
Gordonsville 92 F
New Richmond AP 92 F

Temperature trends

Minnesota highs on Sunday will be in the 80s to lower 90s:

NWS Twin Cities

Dew points in the 60s will be common.

Looking ahead, Twin Cities highs are expected to be in the lower 80s Monday, followed by lower 70s Tuesday, then around 70 degrees on Wednesday and Thursday. We might only reach the upper 60s next Friday.

Rain chances

The northern third of Minnesota will have the best chance of showers and thunderstorms overnight Saturday night.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

The daylight hours of Sunday should be fairly quiet in most of Minnesota, with a shower and thunderstorm chance in northern and central Minnesota Sunday evening and statewide on Monday.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday evening through Monday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday evening through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Off and on showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

Florence update

Tropical storm Florence is still churning away over the Carolinas:

Here’s the Saturday evening update on Florence, from the National Hurricane Center:

Tropical Storm Florence Intermediate Advisory Number 66A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

…CENTER OF FLORENCE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH CAROLINA…
…FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRING OVER A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS…

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.6N 80.1W
ABOUT 45 MI…75 KM SSW OF FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI…100 KM ESE OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…997 MB…29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* South Santee River South Carolina to Surf City North Carolina

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall
threat.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located by NOAA Doppler radars near latitude 33.6 North, longitude
80.1 West.  Florence is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h),
and a slow westward motion is expected to continue through tonight.
A turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on
Sunday.  Florence is forecast to turn northward through the Ohio
Valley by Monday.

Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds remain
near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, mainly to the northeast and
east of the center in heavy rainbands over water.  Gradual weakening
is forecast while Florence moves farther inland during the next
couple of days, and it is expected to weaken to a tropical
depression tonight or by Sunday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
mainly to the east of the center near the coast and over water.
Within the past hour or two, a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h)
with a gust to 59 mph (95 km/h) was reported at the Johnny Mercer
Pier in Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina.  A wind gust to 45 mph
(72 km/h) was recently reported near Hartsville, South Carolina.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
STORM SURGE:  Water levels along the coast of North and South
Carolina are gradually receding.  Some minor coastal flooding is
still possible through Sunday.  For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Southern and central portions of North Carolina into far northeast
South Carolina…an additional 15 to 20 inches, with storm totals
between 30 and 40 inches along the North Carolina coastal areas
south of Cape Hatteras. This rainfall will continue to produce
catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river
flooding.

Remainder of northern South Carolina into western North Carolina and
southwestern Virginia…5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

West-central Virginia into far eastern West Virginia, north of
Roanoke and west of Charlottesville, 3 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.  These rainfall amounts will result in life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding, along with an elevated risk for
landslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue overnight in portions
of the warning area along the coast and also over large portions of
eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern South Carolina, with
tropical-storm-force wind gusts spreading well inland.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible in southeastern North
Carolina and northeastern South Carolina through tonight.

SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Some areas could see an additional 10 to 20 inches of rain:

NOAA/National Weather Service   Potential additional rainfall from Florence Saturday evening through Tuesday

The NAM forecast model shows that the torrential rain in the Carolinas will taper off late on Sunday:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Saturday evening through Sunday evening, via tropicaltidbits

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.