Soggy weather arriving; flash flooding possible mainly southeastern Minnesota Tuesday-Tuesday night
Numerous showers have been making a slow creep generally northward across southern Minnesota on Monday afternoon. More than a few evening barbecues in and around the Twin Cities area are likely to get dampened as we wind down the Labor Day weekend.
The repeating pattern of showers and thunderstorms soaking Iowa and at times surging northward into southern Minnesota is part of a stuck weather pattern. A strong high pressure center anchored over the Mid-Atlantic states is blocking the usual eastward progression of weather systems. A plume of abundant tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico rides the clockwise flow behind this high, northward from Texas to Kansas and then northeast across Iowa to Wisconsin.
Expect showers and some non-severe thunderstorms Monday night, mainly in the southern half of the state.
This pattern will intensify on Tuesday and into Tuesday night. The moisture plume will be reinforced, upper level disturbances will begin to track across Minnesota, and a cold front will approach from the northwest to add more energy.
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Flash flooding possible
Look for showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage around the state on Tuesday as the heating of the day kicks in. Some rainfall is likely to be heavy. And there is definitely concern that repeated rains, training along behind each other over the same areas, could cause flash flooding in mainly southeastern Minnesota Tuesday afternoon or night. As of now, it looks as though the greatest risk of excessive rainfall, in possible amounts of several inches, is likely to be in the general area from Albert Lea to Red Wing to Eau Claire, Wisconsin, and beyond.
Forecast models are indicating the likelihood of of a long track of accumulating rain from Iowa to Upper Michigan from Monday evening into Wednesday.
Severe weather chances
There is a slight risk of severe storms Tuesday afternoon and evening from central Iowa across the southeastern corner of Minnesota and most of Wisconsin:
Hurricane threat to Gulf Coast
Tropical Storm Gordon is forecast to continue to strengthen as it pulls away from Florida and crosses the warm Gulf of Mexico. Gordon is likely to become a hurricane before making landfall along the Gulf Coast Tuesday night. A hurricane warning has been posted for coastal areas of Mississippi and Alabama. A storm surge warning has also been issued for what the National Hurricane Center refers to as "life-threatening inundation."
