Rapid intensification: Florence hits Category 4; storm of record for North Carolina?
The forecast models were right about Hurricane Florence.
The storm rapidly intensified to Category 4 strength today. Maximum sustained winds have reached 140 mph. The eyewall structure with Florence looks nearly perfect.
Rapid intensification
Forecast models nailed the notion of rapid intensification with Florence. The storm's winds soared from 75 mph to 140 mph in a day.
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Possible Category 5 Tuesday?
NOAA's National Hurricane Center predicts winds will reach 155 mph Tuesday. That's borderline Category 5 territory on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Carolina landfall likely
The models spread and official NHC hurricane forecast track still favor a landfall on the North Carolina coast Thursday.
The model spread with possible landfall locations has scattered a little, but still focuses on the North Carolina coast.
But the big picture remains the same. Florence is almost certain now to produce widespread coastal surge and wind damage and inland flooding.
Worst case scenario?
An eye-opening report was issued Monday by Western Carolina University's Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines detailing why this storm could be the storm of record for North Carolina.
Hurricane Florence is likely to generate significant storm surge in North Carolina or South Carolina because it meets all of the above criteria (assuming that the projected track/intensity will hold). The storm will approach the coast close to perpendicularly. The northern side of the storm will see onshore winds pushing a large envelope of water. The storm will be traveling straight towards the coast for days, pushing a lot of water in front of it. There are two embayments in the impact area that could focus flood waters and accentuate storm surge heights.
If the storm comes ashore near Cape Fear, North Carolina, the Onslow Bay embayment would be in the most dangerous quadrant of the storm. All of the barrier islands in Onslow Bay could experience complete overwash. Topsail Island, in the center of that embayment would be particularly exposed. North Topsail Beach is at greatest risk because many areas are already vulnerable. Storm surge heights could be expected to exceed previous records.
Active Atlantic
Today is the peak of hurricane season in the northern hemisphere. The atmosphere seems to have gotten the memo.