Rain, with severe thunderstorms possible; fall colors showing up north

We’ve seen periods of rain over the past few days, and we’ll see rain most of today and into this evening. Severe thunderstorms are possible in some areas this afternoon and early this evening.

A flash flood watch continues until 1 p.m. for southwestern Minnesota:

NWS Twin Cities

Thunderstorm details

A low pressure system will move from Nebraska through southern Minnesota today and this evening.

It will combine with an upper level wave to ignite thunderstorms.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) forecast model shows the potential rain pattern this Thursday afternoon and evening:

NOAA HRRR simulated radar from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The Storm Prediction Center of the National Weather Service shows an enhanced risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening from the Twin Cities metro area to south-central and southeastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Enhanced risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms are possible:

NWS Storm Prediction Center

The Twin Cities NWS office has this description of the severe weather potential:

NWS Twin Cities

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few severe thunderstorms in Minnesota during the early afternoon, but the higher chance would be from around mid afternoon into early this evening.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

This would be a good day to make sure that you have a way to receive weather warnings.

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9:15 a.m. addition

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Temperature trends

Minnesota highs are expected to range from the 50s in the north to the lower 80s in the far southeast. The Twin Cities metro area should reach the upper 60s, with a stray 70 to the southeast. Our average high temp is 70 degrees this time of year in the Twin Cities.

It’ll be chilly and breezy on Friday, with Minnesota highs in the 50s.   The last time that we had a Twin Cities high temp cooler than 60 degrees was on May 11.

Highs return to the 60s in southern Minnesota on Saturday, with 50s in the far north:

We’ll see a lot of 60s on Sunday, with some 70s in the south:

Fall colors

Even though astronomical autumn doesn’t arrive until Saturday, fall colors are appearing in parts of Minnesota.

The fall color report from the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources shows significant fall color in parts of northern Minnesota:

Minnesota DNR

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.