Labor Day mix of weather; heavy rain for some on Tuesday
A soggy morning gave way to a pretty nice Sunday afternoon across much of Minnesota.
And temperatures were very comfortable statewide.
Now, let's look ahead.
Labor Day
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The northern half of Minnesota should see a lot of sunshine on Labor Day.
A mix of clouds and sun is expected in the southern half of our favorite state.
There'll be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in roughly the southern half of Minnesota at some point Monday and Monday evening.
Far southern Minnesota will see the rain chance first on Monday, then that rain chance spreads northward. At this point, the shower/thunderstorm chance in the Twin Cities metro area appears to be mainly Monday afternoon and evening.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Monday through Monday evening:
It'll probably rain in a few spots that look rain-free in the loop, but the scattered nature of the rainfall pattern is illustrated.
The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.
Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.
Temperature trends
Highs in the 70s will be common on Labor Day:
A few spots near Lake Superior could top out in the upper 60s.
Twin Cities highs are expected to reach the upper 70s Monday and Tuesday, followed by lower 70s Wednesday and Thursday and mid 70s on Friday.
Our average high temp is 77 degrees in the Twin Cities metro area right now, but that average high dips to 76 degrees on Tuesday.
Tuesday and Tuesday night downpours
A stalled front could bring heavy rains to parts of southeastern Minnesota, and portions of west-central and southwestern Wisconsin, Tuesday and Tuesday night:
The area of heaviest rain could shift, so check forecast updates as we get closer to Tuesday.
Could become Gordon
A weather system north of Cuba is expected to become a tropical depression Monday morning and a tropical storm by Monday evening.
The next tropical storm name on the 2018 list is Gordon.
The disturbance that could become tropical storm Gordon has this potential track over the next few days, according to the NWS National Hurricane Center:
Here's the latest info on what is currently labelled "Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven":
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM NNE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the central
Gulf Coast from the Alabama-Florida border westward to east of
Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake
Maurepas.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
22.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, emerge
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday evening, and reach
the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression Monday
morning and a tropical storm by Monday evening.
Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical depression by Monday morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts
will be possible Monday afternoon and evening across portions of
South Florida and the Florida Keys.
RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern
Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flash flooding. The
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central
Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week.
Programming note
You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.