In the 70s again, with 80s on Tuesday; Hurricane Florence expected to hit southeast coast of U.S. this week

The 70s won’t go away, but I haven’t heard any complaints.

If you do like it a bit warmer, just wait a couple of days.

Temperature trends

Highs are expected to reach the lower 70s across most of Minnesota Sunday afternoon, with some 60s in the northeast.

Highs will be slightly warmer on Monday, but still in the 70s in most areas:

Twin Cities metro area high temps will probably reach the lower 80s Tuesday through Friday, with dew point temps well into the 60s. That’ll feel downright summery.

Rain chances

There will be a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms in far northwestern Minnesota this Sunday and Sunday evening. The chance of scattered showers/t-storms expands over about the northern half of Minnesota overnight Sunday night.

On Monday, there will be a lingering shower chance over northern and central Minnesota.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday evening through Monday evening:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday evening through Monday evening, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

The Twin Cities metro area will have a chance of a shower or isolated thunderstorm late on Tuesday.

Hurricane Florence

Florence is now a hurricane again, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Here’s a morning view of Hurricane Florence from above:

Here’s the projected track of Florence over the next five days (and the cone of uncertainty), from the National Hurricane Center:

NWS National Hurricane Center

North Carolina, Virginia and parts of South Carolina could see the strongest winds and highest storm surge from Florence, but the projected path could also change a bit over the next few days.

Here’s the Sunday morning update on Florence:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

…FLORENCE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
MONDAY…

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…24.4N 56.3W
ABOUT 750 MI…1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 610 MI…985 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH…9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…984 MB…29.06 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 24.4
North, longitude 56.3 West. Florence is moving toward the west near
6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
today. A west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected by Monday, and that motion is forecast to continue
through mid-week. On the forecast track, the center of Florence
will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and
the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the southeastern
U.S. coast on Thursday.

Aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is 984 mb (29.06 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and are
beginning to reach portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Forecasters will also be keeping an eye on tropical storms Isaac and Helene over the next few days:

NWS National Hurricane Center

Isaac is expected to become a hurricane and then weaken a bit late Thursday or on Friday as it passes south of Puerto Rico:

NWS National Hurricane Center

Warm start to September

Our average temperature (average of each daily high and low temp) is running about three degrees warmer than normal in the Twin Cities metro area this month:

NWS data for Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport

That 88 degree high temp on September 1 was a big factor in the warmth over the eight-day time period.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.