Florence throwing forecasters curve balls

The big picture for Hurricane Florence remains the same. This is a big, dangerous storm that will bring life-threatening storm surge, wind and flooding rains to the Carolinas and much of the southeastern U.S.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The warning language from the National Hurricane Center is graphic and dire.

The Wilmington, N.C., National Weather Service office is calling Florence the storm of a lifetime.

Left turn?

Forecast models still agree on pushing Florence toward the North Carolina coast Thursday night. But then the bulk of models now favor a southwest jog. The official National Hurricane Center track has been adjusted to the left, and NHC indicates more adjustment is likely Wednesday.

That’s their way of saying they respect the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, which has been the westward outlier.

King Euro?

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model leads the way and keeps the hurricane just offshore along the entire South Carolina coast. This would be a nightmare scenario as Florence rakes and rototills cities like Myrtle Beach and Charleston in South Carolina, and Savannah, Ga., with damaging wind and storm surge.

Again this is just one model solution. But it’s the best computer model on the planet statistically.

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model, via tropical tidbits

Stay tuned, Florence may have more surprises as models unfold Wednesday.