Cloudy, cool Sunday; active week of weather to begin October

The short version of the weather for the upcoming week is that most days will be cool, clouds will prevent most frost, and rainy periods are likely. Here is a quick outlook through Thursday for the area in and around the Twin Cities:

Weather outlook through next Thursday. Twin Cities National Weather Service

The stream of clouds flying west to east that began on Saturday will continue for most areas through Sunday. A few sprinkles are possible in central Minnesota but might not be umbrella-worthy. Sunday afternoon high temperatures should be just in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Rainy to begin October

Most of us probably do not need more rain right now. My rain gauge has measured exactly 7 inches of rain so far in September and would like some down time. But it sure looks as though October will start off rather soggy.

Areas of rain will increase across central and southern Minnesota Sunday night and especially on Monday. Some mixed showers of light rain and snow are possible in northern Minnesota while the southeastern part of the state might hear rumbles of thunder. Localized flash flooding is possible from Iowa and southeastern Minnesota to much of Wisconsin and parts of Lower Michigan.

Forecast surface weather map for Monday. NOAA Weather Prediction Center

Pleasant Tuesday

Tuesday will not be really warm but it might end up being the most pleasant day of the coming work week as it should be rain-free and warmer.

Heat and storms likely by Wednesday

Wednesday is likely to bring a one-day warm-up to mainly the southeastern half of Minnesota. Warm air drawn northward ahead of an advancing cold front should boost temperatures well into the 70s and possibly some low 80s from the Twin Cities to southern Minnesota Wednesday afternoon.

The price to be paid is that said cold front and its support aloft will generate widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday.

After the cold front

The cold front will sweep out of the state by Thursday. Behind it we should expect at least several days of colder-than-normal temperatures along with more periods of rain. While considerable cloudiness should prevent nighttime temperatures from plummeting, those same clouds and their showers will bring us rather chilly afternoons from Thursday through at least next weekend.

Here is a look at the probability of colder-than-normal (blue) and warmer-than-normal (red) temperatures during the 8 – 14 day period from Oct. 7 to Oct. 13. Note the impressive surge of cold air southward across the western part of the country while the East bakes.

The 8 – 14 day temperature outlook for Oct. 7 to Oct. 13. NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Periods of rainy weather are likely to develop in and around much of the Midwest during that period.

The 8 – 14 day temperature outlook for Oct. 7 to Oct. 13. NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Eastern Pacific update

Hurricane Rosa and now Tropical Storm Sergio are churning over the eastern Pacific this Sunday morning.

Weather satellite image of Hurricane Rosa and Tropical Storm Sergio. National Hurricane Center

Rosa is tracking toward Baja California on Sunday and then will then drop heavy rain as it speeds across the Desert Southwest toward the Great Basin and Central Rocky Mountains. Localized flash flooding is likely.