A summery Sunday; cooler, with rain at times this week

We like our changeable weather in Minnesota.

We can go from shorts and flip-flops (today) to umbrellas and light jackets (Wednesday).

On to the details.

Temperature trends

Sunday afternoon highs will reach the 90s in west-central and southwestern Minnesota. We could also see 90 or slightly above 90 from S. Cloud to the Twin Cities to Mankato.

The remainder of Minnesota will top out in the 80s Sunday afternoon, although far northeastern Minnesota could see some 70s. Dew points in the 60s will make it feel a bit steamy across much of Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

Cooler highs are on tap for Monday, with 60s northwest and lots of 70s:

Lower 80s will linger one more day in the far southeast.

We’ll see highs in the 60s and 70s on Tuesday:

Twin Cities metro area highs are expected to be around 70 Wednesday and Thursday, and we might only reach the upper 60s on Friday.

Our air-conditioners will have a nice rest this week.

Windy to the west 

A wind advisory is in effect from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. this Sunday in parts of western Minnesota:

NWS Grand Forks

Winds won’t be as strong over eastern Minnesota, but we’ll have a breezy afternoon.

Rain chances

Scattered showers and thunderstorms could move into northern and central Minnesota this Sunday evening and overnight Sunday night. The Twin Cities metro area could see a shower or thunderstorm early Monday morning.

Updated weather information can be heard on the Minnesota Public Radio Network, and updates are also posted on the MPR News live weather blog.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in southern and central Minnesota Monday afternoon, and that chance will increase Monday evening and Monday night.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s North American Mesoscale forecast model shows the potential rain pattern Sunday evening through Tuesday morning:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning, via tropicaltidbits

The color chart to the right of the loop refers to the strength of the signal that returns to the radar, not to the amount of rain.

Off and on showers and thunderstorms are likely on Wednesday and Thursday.

Florence update

NOAA Sunday morning satellite loop, via tropicaltidbits

Tropical storm Florence has weakened, and is now a tropical depression, with max sustained winds of 35 mph.

Here’s the Sunday morning update on Florence, from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

…FLORENCE WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT FLASH FLOODING AND MAJOR
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE
CAROLINAS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…33.8N 81.4W
ABOUT 20 MI…35 KM SW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH…13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1000 MB…29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from South Santee River South Carolina to
Surf City North Carolina is discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence due to the heavy rainfall threat.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence
was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast
track, Florence’s center will move across the western Carolinas
today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas…

Central and western North Carolina into far southwest Virginia…

An additional 5 to 10 inches, with storm total accumulations of 15
to 20 inches in western North Carolina. These rainfall amounts will
produce catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river
flooding, and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

Southern North Carolina into Northern South Carolina…

An additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. This rainfall will
result in additional flash flooding while also exacerbating the
river flooding. Storm total accumulations of 30 to 40 inches in
southeast North Carolina.

West-central Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of
Charlottesville…

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina
and eastern South Carolina today and tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
————-
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at https://wwill start to cww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Here’s the projected path for Florence and the remnants of Florence over the next few days:

NWS/National Hurricane Center

Rain totals have been incredible in parts of North Carolina:

Some areas could see an additional 6 to 10 inches of rain:

NOAA/National Weather Service Potential additional rainfall from Florence Sunday morning through Tuesday night

The NAM forecast model shows that the torrential rain in the Carolinas will taper off late Sunday night:

NOAA NAM simulated radar from Sunday morning through Monday morning, via tropicaltidbits

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on Minnesota Public Radio at 7:49 a.m. Thursdays and Fridays, and at 7:35 a.m., 9:35 a.m. and 4:35 p.m. each Saturday and Sunday.